Triple Throw 30.

This is what makes my theory solid. The idea is that the server has a ticker on it, and every time a certain kind of scroll passes, the server keeps count. After six 60% scrolls pass, it allows the next four consecutive 60% scrolls to fail. This would, by technicality, make them pass on a 60% success rate, but instead of putting more load on the servers to make them do random calculations.

If you scroll in the day, then, it would be more luck than statistic. If you think about it, the counter on the server would be changing far quicker than at the non-peak hours. More people are online during the afternoon hours, meaning more scrolls are being used, thus making the ticker on the backend progress more rapidly. This would raise the "luck" factor of it.

However, in nighttime hours where the servers are desolate, the counter would, obviously, progress much slower. This makes burn scrolling effective. You find the sweet spot where you've exhausted the failures and then continue to make use of the server's passing slots.

It's all in the wording, and if anything, it would explain the crazy outcomes burn-scrollers are able to achieve. I can attest to this also, as every single +6 or better equip I've ever scrolled as at night. Yes, that's a bit of a blind statement to make, but whenever I scroll in rapid succession during peak hours, my successes are spread far apart comparatively.

I think you are seeing Shadows. You should go roll two dice ten million times and write down the result. I can already tell you to within less than +/1 10 the number of times you will roll each number. That is how consistent the law of averages is. I don't know if it is understood how it works, but it does work. Nexon doesn't need a special "clicker" to keep track of what passed and what failed. The law of averages averages it out for them regardless.

-sigh- Burn scrollers are using more scrolls. There is no sleight-of-hand, no hidden server ticker, no voodoo magic, nothing. When you use a scroll the server applies a pseudorandom formula to a seed that is changing many times a second and spits out a result, upon which it decides what your scroll does. There are plenty of people who don't burn scroll and get lucky as well. Stop your superstitious crap.

So you're insinuating that you know everything about Nexon's backend for their servers, and how the content is hosted and implemented?

No? Then don't be so quick to dismiss. You can pan all you want, but fact of the matter is that you don't know any better than the superstitious.

Actually the non-independent randoming method someone mentioned earlier in this thread is called pseudo-randoming.

Truly random numbers come from sources like radiation and environment white noise, etc etc

A lot of computer software, including games, often use pseudo algorithms to generate random numbers, and it works just by increasing probability after failures.

Obviously the problem is no one really knows how Nexon implements the code for scrolling, so all this talk about "independent events" is useless. However, its fairly unlikely it would be affected by dummy scrolling.

and it works just by increasing probability after failures.

No, it doesn't. Pseudo-random generators just use hash methods that are most evenly distributed, so they'll always have the same probability no matter what happened previously. The only way to predict what they'll do is to perfectly imitate the system & input they're getting, and run the algorithm yourself. Since you don't know what algorithm nexon uses, what it's being used for (just scrolls, scrolls of a specific type, scrolls on only 1 channel, etc.) you have very little chance of successfully predicting what will happen.

Working in some sort of "if you fail 6 times, next is more likely to work" would be way more complicated than the simple "generate a random number every time".

I probably got the term wrong, but some games are like that

Its not really that complicated to do either, say if something is supposed to have 20% chance of occurring

First hit would be 5.5%, and each consecutive hit would increase by 5.5%, this eventually leads to something close to 20% overall

Of course everything is just speculation...some people think dummy scrolling works...maybe it does..

I just used 5 60% scrolls on my Maple Asura after pasing 2 40%s. 3/5 worked. EG, 60% worked.

You can speculate all you want about it, but in the end, the end result will always be a bell curve. Fantastic and crappy scrolling on the edges, and decent items in the middle.

Well I passed (4) 40% anvir scrolls and than (2) 60% scrolls and got a 52 atk skanda! <3 *sold it for 200mil*
Than I scrolled another skanda and (4) 40% anvir scrolls worked and than (1) 60% scroll worked and got a 50 atk skanda <3

Anyways I think it's all about luck... Maple doesnt actually go with that 60% bullshit.. *I dont think so*

-sigh- Burn scrollers are using more scrolls. There is no sleight-of-hand, no hidden server ticker, no voodoo magic, nothing. When you use a scroll the server applies a pseudorandom formula to a seed that is changing many times a second and spits out a result, upon which it decides what your scroll does. There are plenty of people who don't burn scroll and get lucky as well. Stop your superstitious crap.

Cue my 15 str Ludi cape, no scrolls burned, all 30s used.

Why has this been continually bumped from February?

I think you are seeing Shadows. You should go roll two dice ten million times and write down the result. I can already tell you to within less than +/1 10 the number of times you will roll each number. That is how consistent the law of averages is. I don't know if it is understood how it works, but it does work. Nexon doesn't need a special "clicker" to keep track of what passed and what failed. The law of averages averages it out for them regardless.

The "Law of Averages" is a myth.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantas...-averages/
http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_rwalk.wasp
http://www.probabilitytheory.info/topics...umbers.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

That dealt with, it is possible that MS's server keeps a count of successes and failures. But there's no reason to. Having the server increment a count every time someone scrolls something or kills a monster or plays Gach and keep track of all that stuff without breaking? Nah. Much simpler to just times-2147483-plus-101-take-the-remainder.

But but but.....

You're breaking my heart........

I hate jooooo............................

On a more serious note, the problem with this is how we perceive things vs how the server perceive things. What does that mean? Well, the server is pretty much stateless in which the law of averages has no footing, whereas when we scrolls, we keep track of passed/failed records, thus we're trying to talk to a deaf person.

Why has this been continually bumped from February?


The "Law of Averages" is a myth.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantas...-averages/
http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_rwalk.wasp
http://www.probabilitytheory.info/topics...umbers.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

That dealt with, it is possible that MS's server keeps a count of successes and failures. But there's no reason to. Having the server increment a count every time someone scrolls something or kills a monster or plays Gach and keep track of all that stuff without breaking? Nah. Much simpler to just times-2147483-plus-101-take-the-remainder.

Well, I agree with you and disagree with you. I agree that I used the wrong term, I should have used the term "The Law of Large Numbers" as that describes what I am talking about. Nexon doesn't have to "keep track" of anything, the natural law of Large Numbers will assure that 60% of the 60% scrolls work and that 30% of the 30% scrolls work.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

I seem to pass all the cheap books first time round, and the expensive ones fail several times... I think nexon is hoping I'll run out of money and buy NX to get more mesos or something...