Triple Throw 30.

I've been trying to work TT30 books recently, but apperently the rate of it working seems to be really low?
9 failed so far, doesnt seem like a 50% rate.
Am I the only one that failed that many?

I've been trying to work TT30 books recently, but apperently the rate of it working seems to be really low?
9 failed so far, doesnt seem like a 50% rate.
Am I the only one that failed that many?

Sorry about your luck, but your chances of flipping a coin and getting 9 heads in a row aren't that bad.

10th.

Finally

Congrats (finally).

Wow, how'd you afford that many TT30 books! LoL.

Grats.

Wow, how'd you afford that many TT30 books! LoL.

Grats.

TT30 books are pretty cheap at the moment in Bellocan. Mainly because that boxes give it out + HT hackers. Made sure it was legits ones though.
They cost from 70 to 80 Mil in bello.

Sorry about your luck, but your chances of flipping a coin and getting 9 heads in a row aren't that bad.

We can quickly calculate the odds of getting nine heads in a row. It is much more difficult than you say.

1 head in a row 50%
2 heads in a row 25%
3 heads in a row 12.5%
4 heads in a row 6.25%
5 heads in a row 3.125%
6 heads in a row 1.563%
7 heads in a row 0.781%
8 heads in a row 0.39%
9 heads in a row 0.195%

so about 2/10ths of 1% chance to fail TT 9 times in a row at 50% pass rate.

10th.

Finally

*high 5* i passed berserk 30 on my 10th try too!

*high 5* i passed berserk 30 on my 10th try too!

30 books sucks eh?

I've been trying to work TT30 books recently, but apperently the rate of it working seems to be really low?
9 failed so far, doesnt seem like a 50% rate.
Am I the only one that failed that many?

Well... i passed it on the first try in MSEA, the price of it was 300m then

We can quickly calculate the odds of getting nine heads in a row. It is much more difficult than you say.

1 head in a row 50%
2 heads in a row 25%
3 heads in a row 12.5%
4 heads in a row 6.25%
5 heads in a row 3.125%
6 heads in a row 1.563%
7 heads in a row 0.781%
8 heads in a row 0.39%
9 heads in a row 0.195%

so about 2/10ths of 1% chance to fail TT 9 times in a row at 50% pass rate.

That's 1 out of 512 people. Not that bad, as I said.

Every chance he has to fail is 50%. Regardless of the last book failing or not, his next book will always be a 50% chance.

Every chance he has to fail is 50%. Regardless of the last book failing or not, his next book will always be a 50% chance.

This is true, and it can never be changed. However, probability is a real factor too. It's the reason so many people use bait scrolling. Obviously you can't make "scrolls work moar" by using baiting, but you do increase your odds if done right. That's all it is...playing the odds.

People who have more confidence in the facts of probability than plain and simple luck use baiting. While it does seem wasteful, if not tedious, it is smart. It's like counting cards in blackjack.

No, it is not like counting cards in blackjack. Scrolls are independant events. It's like if they randomized the cards in blackjack before dealing each card. Though the probability of two mastery books working in a row is really 25%. The probability that the second one works, given the first one worked, is 50%.

No, it is not like counting cards in blackjack. Scrolls are independant events. It's like if they randomized the cards in blackjack before dealing each card. Though the probability of two mastery books working in a row is really 25%. The probability that the second one works, given the first one worked, is 50%.

There are similarities and there are differences. Regardless, perhaps it was a bad comparison to use. That wasn't the point of my post anyway.

Obviously it's not like cards because each scroll can change, while there's always the same cards coming out of a deck. When you know where a card is, you know it can't be in the deck. Much simpler, yes. And in that regard, baiting and counting cards can't be compared. I realize that difference.


However, lets forget counting cards. I think you misunderstand (or underestimate) the concept like I used to. I always used to laugh at people who would waste time with bait scrolls, until a good friend of mine explained and demonstrated it much better to me. He's insanely good at playing odds, and it usually rewards him. The longer he drags out a scrolling session, the better "feel" he can get for what's going to happen.

There's still probability, even with scrolling. While each scroll may have a 60% chance of working, the chances of consecutive success continues to decrease (not the scroll itself). That's what probability tells us. I realize there is no "effective" way to scroll. It's all luck, but you don't have to ride on faith alone.

---

@ Below: Again, completely misunderstanding my view. I don't even bait, nor have I. But I'm not so dense as to fail to see the concept and how it can help you with the situation. I think people need to stop thinking that people who defend baiting are saying it makes scrolls work more.

This is true, and it can never be changed. However, probability is a real factor too. It's the reason so many people use bait scrolling. Obviously you can't make "scrolls work moar" by using baiting, but you do increase your odds if done right. That's all it is...playing the odds.

People who have more confidence in the facts of probability than plain and simple luck use baiting. While it does seem wasteful, if not tedious, it is smart. It's like counting cards in blackjack.

*facepalm* Baiting is a huge and pointless waste of mesos and doesn't affect your odds whatsoever.

There's still probability, even with scrolling. While each scroll may have a 60% chance of working, the chances of consecutive success continues to decrease (not the scroll itself). That's what probability tells us. I realize there is no "effective" way to scroll. It's all luck, but you don't have to ride on faith alone.

Jesus, I feel I'm wasting my time on this discussion.

Though for two 60% scrolls to work in a row the chance is 36%, which would be treating both scrolls as a single event, the chances of each one DO NOT AFFECT the other. In other words, the chance for the 100th 60% scroll to work after the 99 before it failed (example) is still 60%. It's like saying that because you flipped heads on a coin three times the next one has more chance to flip tails.

Jesus, I feel I'm wasting my time on this discussion.

Though for two 60% scrolls to work in a row the chance is 36%, which would be treating both scrolls as a single event, the chances of each one DO NOT AFFECT the other. In other words, the chance for the 100th 60% scroll to work after the 99 before it failed (example) is still 60%. It's like saying that because you flipped heads on a coin three times the next one has more chance to flip tails.

I AM purposely wasting time on this discussion. I need to kill some time right now.

Scrolling is an event. I know many people that choose to use many scrolls at a time rather than just one every few days or something. To me, that becomes a single session, not several sessions occurring one after the other. Doesn't really matter, though.

The point I'm trying to make is nothing complex. It's simply that probability tells us it's continually harder to hit consecutive scrolls. Because of the way scrolls work, their success never changes. That's obvious and has been pointed out enough times.

Baiting serves as a crunch for people who are scared of raw luck. It's helpful in that regard alone. I'm not even disagreeing with your side, which is why I don't understand your misunderstanding.

The point I'm trying to make is nothing complex. It's simply that probability tells us it's continually harder to hit consecutive scrolls. Because of the way scrolls work, their success never changes. That's obvious and has been pointed out enough times.

It doesn't though, and every statistical test I've done on my history of scrolling has shown it to be completely unrelated (I used ~180 60% scrolls in the same setting so I have good sampling up to sequences of about 5-6).


Doesn't matter how many worked, it's still the same chance of hitting another one. Be that 65% (as '60%' scrolls seem to actually be), 10%, or whatever. Same thing, it doesn't matter if they failed - they're still going to have the same chance of failure.

If this person has made videos of their method I'd be interested, otherwise I don't really care about anecdotes. I've had 4 30% work in a row, it just comes down to using enough scrolls, eventually good results do happen.

It doesn't though, and every statistical test I've done on my history of scrolling has shown it to be completely unrelated (I used ~180 60% scrolls in the same setting so I have good sampling up to sequences of about 5-6).


Doesn't matter how many worked, it's still the same chance of hitting another one. Be that 65% (as '60%' scrolls seem to actually be), 10%, or whatever. Same thing, it doesn't matter if they failed - they're still going to have the same chance of failure.

If this person has made videos of their method I'd be interested, otherwise I don't really care about anecdotes. I've had 4 30% work in a row, it just comes down to using enough scrolls, eventually good results do happen.

That's why I'm probably a terrible person at explaining what I mean. I've never baited and I doubt I ever will. But a good friend of mine (SwordTM) won't scroll without baiting. He goes very in-depth with it, and I've seen first-hand the things he can do. I know it's taken him a very long time (like an hour?) to scroll one item. He's accomplished some crazy feats with his method (best example that comes to mind: two 15 att SCGs and a 20 att MS shield in a 3 day span...). The only "failure" in that time was one 13 att SCG.

Luckiest son of a gun known to man? Maybe. But I think there is something to his complex and time-consuming method. He uses a ton of scrolls for just one item. And he's the kind of guy that likes to run the numbers of things. Work things out. I'm not him, but just the things he's done has made me support it at least like this.