possibilities of the Chaos Scroll

Hi All,

we all know how Chaos Scrolls work. It adds -5,.......,+5 stats if the scroll worked.

But im a bit confused of the possibilities regarding the stats the Scroll add or remove.
Tried to search the forum and the net but couldnt find any answers to my question.

I tested now around 10 or more Scrolls. most times i got +0 att when the scroll was successful.

the Chance of having +0 ATT is 0.6 x (1/11) <-- 11 chances (-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5)

Is it really 1/11 for all stats or does the chance decrease the higher or lower the stat is which the scroll adds or remove.
for example. Total chances 60. Chance for 0 Att is 30/60 * 0,6 Chance for +1 att is 10/60* 0,6....... for +5 is 1/60*0,6

So my question is, does such a possibiltytable exist (not this one but in a similar way) or do i have terrible luck with landing all time +0 ATT when the scroll worked?

thanks for your help

Hi All,

we all know how Chaos Scrolls work. It adds -5,.......,+5 stats if the scroll worked.

But im a bit confused of the possibilities regarding the stats the Scroll add or remove.
Tried to search the forum and the net but couldnt find any answers to my question.

I tested now around 10 or more Scrolls. most times i got +0 att when the scroll was successful.

the Chance of having +0 ATT is 0.6 x (1/11) <-- 11 chances (-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5)

Is it really 1/11 for all stats or does the chance decrease the higher or lower the stat is which the scroll adds or remove.
for example. Total chances 60. Chance for 0 Att is 30/60 * 0,6 Chance for +1 att is 10/60* 0,6....... for +5 is 1/60*0,6

So my question is, does such a possibiltytable exist (not this one but in a similar way) or do i have terrible luck with landing all time +0 ATT when the scroll worked?

thanks for your help

Bit too tired to dig deeper into these threads, but these two should help:

http://www.southperry.net/showthread.php?t=15365

http://www.southperry.net/showthread.php?t=14266

thanks a lot. Thats all i need!!

Thanks

To make it a little bit clearer:

Stat	Chance
-5	1/64
-4	5/64
-3	10/64
-2	10/64
-1	5/64
-0	1/64
+0	1/64
+1	5/64
+2	10/64
+3	10/64
+4	5/64
+5	1/64

That's only if it works. And yes, both +0 and -0 are there. That's not a typo. Also, these changes affect individual stats on the item. So it rerolls for STR, DEX, INT, LUK, wdef, mdef, etc.

Thats very clear. Super!!

Well then i have terrible luck since i have min. 4 times of 10 scrolls + or - 0 att. I only had 1 time +2 att and 1 time -1 att an the rest failed f3.
Its still confusing that you have higher chance to get a +2 as a +1 or -1 as result....

I'm not certain that's right, Fiel listed 2 very different methods posted for finding the chaos scrolls.

1) sum (5 of) (30% -1, 40% 0, 30% +1)
2) sum (5 of) (50% +1, 50% +0) * (50% -1, 50% +1)

In the second case it will come out with +2, +3, -2, -3 most often, and 0, +5, -5 least often, with the fractions as Harrisonized said.

In the first case, it's more like
+5 .24%
+4 1.6%
+3 5.5%
+2 12.2%
+1 19.2%
0 22.3%
-1 19.2%
-2 12.2%
-3 5.5%
-4 1.6%
-5 0.24%

And I have to say these probabilities fit a lot better with my observed rate of item finding. The middle -1 0 +1 takes care of the majority of weapons (3/5) and +5s are very very rare.

I'm not certain that's right, Fiel listed 2 very different methods posted for finding the chaos scrolls.

1) sum (5 of) (30% -1, 40% 0, 30% +1)
2) sum (5 of) (50% +1, 50% +0) * (50% -1, 50% +1)

In the second case it will come out with +2, +3, -2, -3 most often, and 0, +5, -5 least often, with the fractions as Harrisonized said.

In the first case, it's more like
+5 .24%
+4 1.6%
+3 5.5%
+2 12.2%
+1 19.2%
0 22.3%
-1 19.2%
-2 12.2%
-3 5.5%
-4 1.6%
-5 0.24%

And I have to say these probabilities fit a lot better with my observed rate of item finding. The middle -1 0 +1 takes care of the majority of weapons (3/5) and +5s are very very rare.

This would underline my experience with passing the scroll without adding or removing stats.
So to draw a conclusion. good Chaos scrolling is way harder than i thought.

And I have to say these probabilities fit a lot better with my observed rate of item finding. The middle -1 0 +1 takes care of the majority of weapons (3/5) and +5s are very very rare.

I'd have to say that in my experience with Chaos scrolling, I observed the probabilities I posted the most. (Referring to my HTP, Morrican, and leaves.) If a single stat doesn't get +0 or -0, most often it jumps 2 or 3 stats. Hardly ever jumps 1.

And yes, good chaos scrolling is much harder than you think. Refer to my thread about the 28 or 29atk bwg. That extra 1-2 attack costs 3.023b, and that's just with a single scroll.

Edit:

 Spoiler

+0 +2 +3 +1 -0 -4 +1 +2 -2 +2 +2 -2 -4 -1

Totals (+ or - stats)
0: 2
1: 3
2: 6
3: 1
4: 2
5: 0

Out from the formula Fiel provided me, the result turns out to be

-5	-4	-3	-2	-1	0	1	2	3	4	5
1/64	5/64	10/64	10/64	5/64	2/64	5/64	10/64	10/64	5/64	1/64

Out from the collected data I've gathered, this seems to be, if not the correct table, a very accurate table.

Also, it seems like my host died. Hmm, need another one.

Noah

Out from the formula Fiel provided me, the result turns out to be

-5	-4	-3	-2	-1	0	1	2	3	4	5
1/64	5/64	10/64	10/64	5/64	2/64	5/64	10/64	10/64	5/64	1/64

Out from the collected data I've gathered, this seems to be, if not the correct table, a very accurate table.

Also, it seems like my host died. Hmm, need another one.

Noah

This is exactly Problem i have to deal with now. for me a chance of 10/64 is really high. It just seems to high for me.
But maybe im really wrong.

Anyway thanks a lot forall the answers.

This is exactly Problem i have to deal with now. for me a chance of 10/64 is really high. It just seems to high for me.
But maybe im really wrong.

Anyway thanks a lot forall the answers.

I'd rather think of it this way:
First of all, there's a 60% chance of making the scroll work.
Second, summing up all other probabilities below 3 attack gives you 3/4. That is, in 75% of all the cases where the scroll is working, it will be below a 3 attack bonus. Adding in the 60%-probability means that there's a 15% chance on every scroll to get a 3 attack or more increase.

Doesn't really sound that bad, but keep in mind that you cannot use a white scroll to guarantee a good result from this. Having just two in a row over 2 attack gives you a chance of 2.25%. This means you will need roughly 52 scrolls on average to get it to work and 44 items of the type, in same condition. For two scrolls. I'm quite sure there's a lot easier to use other scrolls for the same purpose, unless you are scrolling a cape or some gloves.

Noah

And of course if the stat goes to zero in any of the 5 steps of the process it won't go back, so for items with 1-2 of a stat the probability of the stat going to zero is higher.