Won't Be Coming Back
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2010-02-05, 01:53 AM
(This post was last modified: 2010-02-09, 11:09 AM by 2147483647.)
Purpose:
I've always wanted to see one of these made. However, to this day, I've YET TO SEE anyone even bother to try. Why not? People have chaos'd every other item to death, including Zhelms, Belts, and HTPs, yet they refuse to stick these wondrous scrolls on their +3ATK 8slot Brown Work Gloves. Why is perfection limited to 10% scrolls? Why stop short of the sky?
Method:
Calculations, because they're more exact and it's impossible to obtain data through actual experimentation or simulation.
Materials:
Table 1: Items Needed and their Average Costs
| # | Variable | Item | Cost | Calculations | Amount Vs. Control |
|---|
| 1 | Control | +6atk 5slot BWG via 30% scrolls | 2.222b | (200)/(0.3)/(0.3) | 1x | | 2 | Experimental Group 1 | +6, +7, or +8atk 5slot BWG via Chaos scrolls | 5.244b | (200/0.3+120)/((1+5+10)/64x0.6) | 2.36x | | 3 | Experimental Group 2 | +9 or +10atk 4slot SCG via Chaos scrolls | 12.8b | (600+120)/((1+5)/64x0.6) | 5.76x | | 4 | Negative Control | +27atk 0slot BWG via 2 30% scrolls and 7 50% scrolls with White scrolls (cheapest way to make this) | 14.822b | (200)/0.3/0.3+900(7)(2) | 6.67x |
Calculations:
Assuming that you have the exact funding to make a perfect +27atk BWG and decide to make your BWG using Experimental 1, then you would basically have enough money to scroll, under statistical conditions, the following number of slots with 50%s + white scrolls, which is the cheapest way to make such an item:
(6.67-2.36)(200)/(0.3)/(0.3)/(2(900)) = 5.321 slots
What this means is that:
1. You have a 67.9% chance to end up with a +22atk or +23atk 2slot BWG
2. You have a 32.1% chance to end up with a +25atk or +26atk 1slot BWG
To understand this further, since these chances are applied for both (perfect+1) and (perfect+2) BWGs, we need to consider that the chance of getting a +4 with a single chaos scroll is modeled by 5/64 x 0.6. The chance of getting a +5 with a single chaos scroll is modeled by 1/64 x 0.6. This means that in addition to the 68% and 32% chances, we can further break up these two chances as follows:
(5/6)(6-(6.67-2.36)(200)/(0.3)/(0.3)/(2(900))) = 0.566
(1/6)(6-(6.67-2.36)(200)/(0.3)/(0.3)/(2(900))) = 0.113
(5/6)((6.67-2.36)(200)/(0.3)/(0.3)/(2(900))-5) = 0.267
(1/6)((6.67-2.36)(200)/(0.3)/(0.3)/(2(900))-5) = 0.0535
1. You have a 56.6% chance at getting a +22atk 2slot BWG
2. You have a 11.3% chance at getting a +23atk 2slot BWG
3. You have a 26.7% chance at getting a +25atk 1slot BWG
4. You have a 5.35% chance at getting a +26atk 1slot BWG
Now, we calculate the average of these two costs for the "marginal cost" of making this hypothetical BWG:
2(2)(900)(6-(6.67-2.36)(200)/(0.3)/(0.3)/(2(900))) + (2)(900)((6.67-2.36)(200)/(0.3)/(0.3)/(2(900))-5) = 3.022b
This is confirmed by the reverse calculation, which is the difference in the cost between the Control and the Experimental Group 1:
(200/0.3+120)/((1+5+10)/64x0.6) - (200)/(0.3)/(0.3) = 3.022b
Data:
Marginal Cost: 3.022b
Table 2: If the Chaos adds +4 or +5
| # | Item | Chance (%) |
|---|
| 1 | +22atk 2slot BWG | 56.6 | | 2 | +23atk 2slot BWG | 11.3 | | 3 | +25atk 1slot BWG | 26.7 | | 4 | +26atk 1slot BWG | 5.35 |
Discussion:
It costs ~3.022b more to get either a +28 atk BWG (83.3% chance) or a +29 atk BWG (16.7% chance).
It's well worth the effort in my opinion if you have that kind of money, because you're only spending ~20.4% more than what you would have spent making that definite +27atk. It's important to keep in mind that the 3.022b is only a calculation on the average cost, which would only apply if many people were trying this and we only accounted for the total costs. Individual costs can vary greatly, and if you do get lucky, you'd score a huge profit.
Now that you know the cost and probabilities associated with this, you should go make one.
Posting Freak
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Because reaching the sky in maplestory without hacks or unlimited access to the US treasury is impossible?
Won't Be Coming Back
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2010-02-05, 02:03 AM
(This post was last modified: 2010-02-05, 02:05 AM by 2147483647.)
Or is it? According to Noah's Chaos Scroll possibilities, landing a +3, +4, or +5, are 10/64 (if it passes), 5/64 (if it passes) and 1/64 (if it passes), respectively. That means on the second slot of a +3 atk 8 slot Brown Work Glove, your chances of getting a positive (anything above or equal to 3) is 16/64 x 0.6, or 15%. That's pretty good odds, considering the chance of a definite +3 atk is 30%.
So essentially, you halve your chance for a better attack gain on that one scroll. Now I'm not saying you should go all out and chaos the whole thing, because then the probabilities cancel each other out and if you ever hit 0, the glove is dead, but if you just chaos that second slot, then you can easily just white the rest of it and get that (perfect +1atk) work glove.
Posting Freak
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2147483647 Wrote:Or is it? According to Noah's Chaos Scroll possibilities, landing a +3, +4, or +5, are 10/64 (if it passes), 5/64 (if it passes) and 1/64 (if it passes), respectively. That means on the second slot of a +3 atk 8 slot Brown Work Glove, your chances of getting a positive (anything above or equal to 3) is 16/64 x 0.6, or 15%. That's pretty good odds, considering the chance of a definite +3 atk is 30%.
So essentially, you halve your chance for a better attack gain on that one scroll. Now I'm not saying you should go all out and chaos the whole thing, because then the probabilities cancel each other out and if you ever hit 0, the glove is dead, but if you just chaos that second slot, then you can easily just white the rest of it and get that (perfect +1atk) work glove.
Takebacker is right. You have a 15% chance to reach this or whatever, but to get that 15% chance you need to spend MONEY on bwgs and chaos scrolls. If you end up with a 3 att wg, and you spent all that money, you will feel REALLY stupid. That's why scrolling is almost never done to prove some abstract point: scrolling is MONEY, and few waste money on theoreticals.
Won't Be Coming Back
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omg Quantact. Why'd you change your name?
On topic: It's not to "prove" some abstract theoretical. We know it's possible to land +4s and +5s, and you would technically have the best available glove if you succeed. All it requires is the second slot, and really, people who do attempt to scroll "perfect" work glove have enough or will have enough funding to afford all the white scrolls. With a single white scroll, you can purchase 3 chaos scrolls (if market prices are still the same as when I left), and +3atk 8 slot Brown Work Gloves are easy to make.
Btw, how did you get that black username? I want a purple one. ><
Posting Freak
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2147483647 Wrote:omg Quantact. Why'd you change your name? 
On topic: It's not to "prove" some abstract theoretical. We know it's possible to land +4s and +5s, and you would technically have the best available glove if you succeed. All it requires is the second slot, and really, people who do attempt to scroll "perfect" work glove have enough or will have enough funding to afford all the white scrolls. With a single white scroll, you can purchase 3 chaos scrolls (if market prices are still the same as when I left), and +3atk 8 slot Brown Work Gloves are easy to make.
Btw, how did you get that black username? I want a purple one. ><
Me getting a black name is a long story.
It's one thing to play this game and enjoy it, and another to be one of those people that "needs" a 21/141 sparta, a 22/25 att shield, etc. The type of scrolling you're proposing is simply a waste of money. If you have that much money, just buy a great glove and use that. Keep in mind also that grinding a Cygnus to lvl 120 will activate Fairy's Blessing, which provides an additional 12 attack to your character. Do you really care whether the extra attack comes from Fairy's Blessing or the bwg? I think this feverish obsession with "perfect" items is the embodiment of what is wrong with Maple nowadays. Settling for even "godly" gear is not enough anymore.
Posting Freak
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2010-02-05, 02:34 AM
(This post was last modified: 2010-02-05, 02:37 AM by Goals.)
I think you'll lose less money chaosing SCGs on their first slot. Keep in mind you'll go through tons and tons of BWGs to land one on the first slot for enough gloves to gamble for a +4 or +5 on the 2nd slot w/ a chaos. My friend landed a chaos on his SCG and it added +5 attack. I think it's sitting at like 17 Atk 2 slots right now.
It's not practical to 60% chaos things like that. I mean a 8 atk 5 slot u/h BWG isn't worth as much to alot of people as say a 7 atk 4 slot chaosed Facestompers. Most people chaos hoping they'll profit. It's not practical to chaos things that already have existing scrolls for attack with the except of shoes which have 60% shoe for attack.
Won't Be Coming Back
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2010-02-05, 02:39 AM
(This post was last modified: 2010-02-05, 02:44 AM by 2147483647.)
Actually, you lose much more money chaosing SCGs, and the reason is that it starts 1 atk behind. That means that you HAVE to get that +5 on the first slot to get the bonus, and that greatly diminishes your chances. You'd need to land a 1/64 x 0.6 = 0.9375% chance, which is much lower than the 15% chance you get with the BWG.
If your friend's SCG sitting at 17atk 2 slots, then something has been unaccounted for, since (assuming it's unhammered) 17atk + 12 atk = 29 atk. SCGs have 5atk to begin with and only a total of 7 slots, so 29atk - 5atk = 24 atk, which means that he had an extra three attack come from somewhere. He'd have to had landed a +4 and a +5 consecutively. :f6:
And while I agree with you Quantact, I know that there are enough people such as Dan (FrozNlite) and Goals, whose goals are to have the godliest equipment possible. The reason I made this thread is that I saw Shawn's (VarsityHero's) new video thread and noticed that he has a 27atk BWG too, so I was wondering why people still don't try to exceed expectations.
Posting Freak
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2010-02-05, 02:42 AM
(This post was last modified: 2010-02-05, 02:49 AM by Goals.)
2147483647 Wrote:Actually, you lose much more money chaosing SCGs, and the reason is that it starts 1 atk behind. That means that you HAVE to get that +5 on the first slot to get the bonus, and that greatly diminishes your chances. You'd need to land a 1/64 x 0.6 = 0.9375% chance, which is greatly lower than the 15% chance you get with the BWG. If it's sitting at 17atk 2 slots, then something REALLY screwed up, because (assuming it's unhammered), 17atk + 12 atk = 29 atk. Since SCGs have 5atk to begin with and only a total of 7 slots, then 29atk - 5atk = 24 atk, which means that he had an extra three attack come from somewhere. He'd have to had landed a +4 and a +5 consecutively. :f6:
I think he might be lying. I didn't see the glove yet. Well, SCGs still have some attack on them right? As long as the glove makes it past 7 atk on the first slot, the value should stay around the same right? It's less practical to scroll BWGs because you will break many of them, leaving you with NO item. Chaos scrolls don't break the item but if you scroll the BWG you have to first pass one, no? Stormcaster gloves are only worth 3x BWGs in my server so idk. SCG = 600m, bwg = 200m
I mean my point is, you kinda have to gamble with the 30% break rate for a bit. & then you're left with a 3 atk glove which will take more WS to finish with 50% + WS combo. Why not just wait til you hit +5 on a SCG then WS the last 6 slots instead of finishing 7 slots on the BWG?
Won't Be Coming Back
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2010-02-05, 02:48 AM
(This post was last modified: 2010-02-05, 02:58 AM by 2147483647.)
SCGs have 5atk to begin with and only have 7 slots. BWGs have 0 atk to begin with, but have 9 slots. So if you have a "perfect" BWG, when you have 7 slots, you'd have 6atk, which is 1 better. That decreases your chance by 6x (assuming you already have the item), which defeats its purpose because of the cost of "catching up".
It's impossible to break an item with a chaos scroll. If you're talking about breaking a BWG with dark scroll on the first slot, it's actually more efficient to use dark scrolls (30%s) on the first 3 slots (I think, might be 2 or 4) of a BWG than to use white scrolls all the way. The same is true for both BWGs and SCGs and most other "perfect" items, unless the item is irreplaceable (like a lunchbox).
I'm actually surprised you asked this, since you have quite a few perfect items yourself. :f6:
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2147483647 Wrote:SCGs have 5atk to begin with and only have 7 slots. BWGs have 0 atk to begin with, but have 9 slots. So if you have a "perfect" BWG, when you have 7 slots, you'd have 6atk.
It's impossible to break an item with a chaos scroll. If you're talking about breaking a BWG with dark scroll on the first slot, it's actually more efficient to use dark scrolls (30%s) on the first 3 slots (I think, might be 2 or 4) of a BWG than to use white scrolls all the way. The same is true for both BWGs and SCGs and most other "perfect" items, unless the item is irreplaceable (like a lunchbox).
I know chaos scrolls don't break I kinda phrased it weirdly. I suck at English D:.
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You don't NEED a 28 att bwg. Back when I started playing Maple a 12 att wg was ultra-godly. Is 12 att then any worse than 12 att now? You should have to play fun, and when you start to damage-whore for every att point, that's not fun anymore, that's an obsession.
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2010-02-05, 02:54 AM
(This post was last modified: 2010-02-05, 02:57 AM by Goals.)
Derimed Wrote:You don't NEED a 28 att bwg. Back when I started playing Maple a 12 att wg was ultra-godly. Is 12 att then any worse than 12 att now? You should have to play fun, and when you start to damage-whore for every att point, that's not fun anymore, that's an obsession.
I know but this is a fun discussion. I agree it's absolutely stupid to even attempt this. It'll probably cost you like 30b, rofl.
OH, I get you Harrisonized. A 3 atk 8 slot BWG will potentially be better than a 5 atk 7 slot SCG as long as the chaos hits +4 or +5. While the SCG needs a +5 to match a BWG that has +4 on it. That means it'll double the chances for a 3 atk 8 slots BWG to get either favorable outcome of +4 or +5?
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2010-02-05, 02:56 AM
(This post was last modified: 2010-02-05, 02:59 AM by 2147483647.)
Assuming a clean BWG is 200m (it was 100m when I was still playing), passing a 30% chance basically raises the cost of making a +3 atk 8 slot BWG to 667m. We'll just assume the clean SCG costs 600m as you said.
Now:
To get THE benefit on your BWG, you'd need a +4 or a +5. This is modeled by (1/64 + 5/64) x 0.6 chance.
To get THE benefit on your SCG, you'd need a +5. This is modeled by (1/64) x 0.6 chance.
So the cost of making the (perfect+1) SCG is 5.4x the cost of making the (perfect+1) bwg (11.851b statistically).
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2010-02-05, 02:59 AM
(This post was last modified: 2010-02-05, 03:02 AM by Goals.)
2147483647 Wrote:If a clean BWG is 200m (it was 100m when I was still playing), passing a 30% chance basically raises the cost of making a +3 atk 8 slot BWG to 667m.
A clean SCG costs 600m as you said.
Now:
To get THE benefit on your BWG, you'd need a +4 or a +5. This is modeled by (1/64 + 5/64) x 0.6 chance.
To get THE benefit on your SCG, you'd need a +5. This is modeled by (1/64) x 0.6 chance.
So the cost of making the (perfect+1) SCG is 5.4x the cost of making the (perfect+1) bwg (11.851b statistically).
And right after you make that +4 or +5 BWG you'll stop chaosing gloves & switch to WS + 50% on the 7 Atk 7 slot or 8 atk 7 slot BWG you just made. Oh I understand what you mean now.
I was thinking about the cost of making a +5 Chaosed SCG V.S +4 or +5 Chaosed BWG (w/ 3 atk landed) initially so I was thinking about selling off the failed SCGs. LMAO
I didn't see that you mean the TOTAL cost of the entire scrolling of a perfect +1 or +2 glove.
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2010-02-05, 03:14 AM
(This post was last modified: 2010-02-05, 04:46 AM by 2147483647.)
I didn't mean the total cost. I'm only comparing the cost of making the glove "ahead of the current-perfect status". To put things into perspective (as a control group), you have a 9% chance to make a +6 atk 5slot BWG, so the cost of doing that is 2.2b. Let's recompare the costs again. If we're comparing greater OR equal to, then the costs change from my calculations above. In these calculations, the cost of Chaos scrolls are 120m each.
Edit: See first post
So it's definitely better to use a BWG as opposed to a SCG. Now if we were to consider the cost of making a +7 or +8 5slot BWG, really, a 3B difference isn't that much when you're trying to make a 27atk BWG (and you actually succeed), because 3B is actually the cost of 3-4 sets of 50% scrolls + white scrolls, which may as well be counted as 2 slots.
So basically, you're cutting your funding for 2 of the slots to stick this extra attack on there. It sounds like a worthy investment for a long-term goal if someone really wants to hoard that stat.
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I could be wrong, but as I recall MoxJr of Bera had a 29 attack brown work glove, didn't he? o.o
Either way I think it is more practical to scroll for only (lol) the 27 attack rather than risk anything more than that.
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ImagineAll Wrote:I could be wrong, but as I recall MoxJr of Bera had a 29 attack brown work glove, didn't he? o.o
LOL. No, he doesn't. He does have a very good glove though. And this is probably the limit of what I can say about it.
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I saw a 30 bwg in windia recently - as in this week. Up to them to post it here and I have no clue how it was obtained or any history to it but I am the biggest skeptic u will meet so I'm going to assume some shadiness involved ESP the history of this player however it definitely exists and was NOT LOCKED!!!&@&?! More than zomg glove I was concerned why it wasn't locked! And yes this glove was hammered but I'd swear it was short a slot .... Or maybe it was over a slot.... But iono how u can add slots to something so im prolly remembering wrong and it was one below. I'll check ss when I'm home.
Won't Be Coming Back
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2010-02-05, 06:07 AM
(This post was last modified: 2010-02-05, 06:36 AM by 2147483647.)
Can you post a screenshot please? I'd like to see this too. :f6:
Derimed Wrote:You don't NEED a 28 att bwg. Back when I started playing Maple a 12 att wg was ultra-godly. Is 12 att then any worse than 12 att now? You should have to play fun, and when you start to damage-whore for every att point, that's not fun anymore, that's an obsession. This reminds me of my tagged 8/74 u/h lama staff, which was godly when I made it (before dark scrolls came out, there were only 10%s and 60%s). Today, it's glowing purple, but it's no longer considered godly. I actually gave it away to a close friend of mine just today.
I agree with you that it's not fun to stat-whore, and that was actually one of the reasons I quit (I tired myself of the game statwhoring from my Fire Staff), but when I played Maple, I wanted to maintain at least some level of originality. Really, it's no fun if you try something that someone has already done hundreds of times before you (lolPapulatus), because then you're simply following a machine by using a predetermined set of procedures.
One of the reasons I played Maple is that it can be experimented in a wide variety of different ways. This dimension was a dimension pretty much left unexplored, and it would be likely reappear in the future if Nexon ever releases a Vega for Chaos Scrolls or something of the sort, because what happens when you end up "finishing" all your equips? You use Chaos scrolls to better them even more.
Anywhoo, I just recalculated everything and put it in the first post in a more user-friendly format (than before). It costs quite a bit, but nowhere near 30b as Goals had projected.
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