Time Piece Log

[color="#cc8899"]For people asking what the droprate is. I'll record number of Oblivion Guardians/Chief Oblivion Guardians killed (based on % gained, may be off by a small amount due to Eye of Times. While I'm working on Veteran Hunter it will be 100% accurate). The goal is to, with enough raw data, be able to get a general droprate for them. I will only be using my information, as it's the only way I can 100% verify the results.

19 SEP 09 - 1,113 killed, 2 PoT (1x drop)
20 SEP 09 - 2346 killed, 2 PoT (1x drop)
21 SEP 09 950 killed, 3 PoT (2x drop)
950 killed, 4 PoT (4x drop)
3,371 killed, 6 PoT (2x drop) [/COLOR]

I'm going to go ahead and guess that the drop rate is on average 1:500. Every 500 mobs, you'll get 1 time piece. (basing this off the fact that every few hours i get 2 pieces, and i'm sure to have killed at least 1k mobs in that time)

I would also guess around 1 in 5-600 but it doesn't hurt to test ingame.

I've observed it to come out to about 1/800.

I get about 1100 kills per hour at O2 and I only find one piece on average

After ~60 pieces, I'm going to go with 0.1 for my guess for Oblivion Oracles.

From experience I'd guess roughly 1/700 for Oblivion Guardians. How about we pool all our collective time pieces together and the winner gets em all?

Maybe it goes something like:

Memory monk: 0.01%
Memory trainee: 0.02%
Memory guardian: 0.03%
Chief memory guardian: 0.04%
Qualm monk: 0.05%
...
Chief oblivion guardian: 0.12%


And perhaps even wedge in the bosses with 100x an ordinary monster's droprate (5% for dodo, 10% for lilynouch, 15% for lyka), which would make chief oblivion guardians' rate 0.15%.

Maybe it goes something like:

Memory monk: 0.01%
Memory trainee: 0.02%
Memory guardian: 0.03%
Chief memory guardian: 0.04%
Qualm monk: 0.05%
...
Chief oblivion guardian: 0.12%


And perhaps even wedge in the bosses with 100x an ordinary monster's droprate (5% for dodo, 10% for lilynouch, 15% for lyka), which would make chief oblivion guardians' rate 0.15%.

[color="#cc8899"]Could be, but one problem -
That's logical. Nexon fails logic forever as proven consistently by past experiences.[/COLOR]

There's no set rate, guys. I found 10 in a 3 hour period on 1x drop. Other times I don't find any.

yo MasPan, abort mission, this isn't worth your time. I grinded 30 days straight at Oblivion Guardians, from 162-172, and got a total of 119 Time Pieces. There were some days where I got up to 10 pieces, sometimes 15, in one sitting on a 1x droprate. There were also times where I didn't get a single piece of time for days a time (Four hours each day). Remember when Nexon gave a 2x drop card as a part of Monster Book compensation? I got that card while I was still grinding, and it clicked in perfectly with my 2x timeslot.

I didn't get a single piece of time on that 2x drop. I forget how long that card lasted, but that was well over 8 hours total.

There's no set rate, guys. I found 10 in a 3 hour period on 1x drop. Other times I don't find any.

I'm falling for the obvious troll:

A 1/500 probability doesn't mean every exact 500 monsters you'll get one PoT, it's just an average. The more data we have, the more accurately close we can get to the real probability.

yo MasPan, abort mission, this isn't worth your time. I grinded 30 days straight at Oblivion Guardians, from 162-172, and got a total of 119 Time Pieces. There were some days where I got up to 10 pieces, sometimes 15, in one sitting on a 1x droprate. There were also times where I didn't get a single piece of time for days a time (Four hours each day). Remember when Nexon gave a 2x drop card as a part of Monster Book compensation? I got that card while I was still grinding, and it clicked in perfectly with my 2x timeslot.

I didn't get a single piece of time on that 2x drop. I forget how long that card lasted, but that was well over 8 hours total.

I understand this. However, even the high and low ends of the scale will be helpful in determining the average.

I understand this. However, even the high and low ends of the scale will be helpful in determining the average.

To make this more extreme and yet so precise, I demand that you do this in Oblivion 5 only. Kill anywhere else = void evidence.

Other than that, I would guess 1/750 drop rate for PoT.

1/1000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

That is what I predict the ratio is.

There is that better for a post as if it wasnt painfully obvious what I had posted at first

I'm falling for the obvious troll:

A 1/500 probability doesn't mean every exact 500 monsters you'll get one PoT, it's just an average. The more data we have, the more accurately close we can get to the real probability.

Not trolling. I know what probability is, but trying to pinpoint is kind of silly, especially with the extremes that I've seen.

Sorry then, I guess, It's just that someone always comes into threads like this saying "oh lawd, its not a fixed rate! ive gotten 230892309 in 10min once!"

But yeah, it's hard to make a good estimate for such a low probability.

[color="#cc8899"]Could be, but one problem -
That's logical. Nexon fails logic forever as proven consistently by past experiences.[/COLOR]

It's the easiest way to set the droprates though. We already know from that bMS leak thing that Nexon has to set each droprate percentage individually and that each droprate percentage is "neat" (like not something like 0.00928565%), so I don't really think there's a reason for them to set droprates in a more complicated way than what I posted above. The predicted chances seem to match quite nicely with the actual values too.

I found a time piece after killing 5 mobs then never found one again

To make this more extreme and yet so precise, I demand that you do this in Oblivion 5 only. Kill anywhere else = void evidence.

Other than that, I would guess 1/750 drop rate for PoT.

[color="#cc8899"]
More than likely, Chief/Reg Oblivion Guardians will not have much difference. Beyond that, I'm attempting to find the droprate for the map itself (not 1/xxx for OB, 1/yyy for COB, but 1/zzz average kills between OB and COB while traversing Oblivion 4), not for individual monsters. I'm discounting Eye Of Time because it's too much work to factor them in and they're such a small percentage of kills.

Because some platforms spawn different monsters, meaning the spread isn't even/consistent, I'll also include a training video demonstrating my map-cycle (not likely to play a major role, but it might be noteworthy).

@ Above, I've found them while walking to Oblivion 4 from random kills (I kill everything in my path when walking around, none of that pig-riding nonsense)[/COLOR]

Maybe it goes something like:

Memory monk: 0.01%
Memory trainee: 0.02%
Memory guardian: 0.03%
Chief memory guardian: 0.04%
Qualm monk: 0.05%
...
Chief oblivion guardian: 0.12%


And perhaps even wedge in the bosses with 100x an ordinary monster's droprate (5% for dodo, 10% for lilynouch, 15% for lyka), which would make chief oblivion guardians' rate 0.15%.

What about eyes of time?