Posting Freak
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Idea in Progress, inspired by Stereo's post in http://www.southperry.net/forums/showthread.php?t=10844
Organized monster farming for a droprate database.
Hopefully we will be able to use it to get a feel for not only what drops what, but how often (ie, Cold Eyes drop an absurd amount of PMCHs in relation to other equips, as do Birks/Dual Birks Dark Arunds/Ravens). The only issue would be Nexon's ability to change droprates at will...
Anyways, once a week a new monster can be selected, with the idea of everyone involved spending 2-3 hours farming the monster, or killing 25,000 of them. Results could be compiled for a droprate database.
Any numbers could be useful, but 25,000 would be a good standardized number that wouldn't take more than a few hours to do. Obviously not something everyone would have interest/time to participate in, but any help would be appreciated. I would prefer that data NOT be from 2x drop hunts, as Nexon is known to pineapple it up on a regular basis, so data would be unpredictable.
I would need someone who is pretty good at statistics to aid in compiling the information and obtaining a reasonable drop rate with a standard deviation dedicated to compiling everything once a week. Maybe Eos to help me create the database itself, as I don't have much skill in coding, but I can put it together by hand if necessary.
Anyways, I'll try to pick monsters with relatively good drops/money to make it worthwhile to hunt them, and to increase the number of said drops circulating the economy.
I'll select the first monster within a week if I can get at least 10-15 people who promise to keep the data flowing.
Posting Freak
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2009-04-18, 10:17 PM
(This post was last modified: 2009-04-18, 10:27 PM by Stereo.)
Too bad you can't write mods for MS like WoW... I'm pretty sure wowhead uses an applet to automatically keep track of what players find so there's no reporting bias.
I think this could work out, not sure if 25000 is reasonable though? I guess it depends on the monster and the people killing it. That would be about 20 hours on the stuff I train on (estimated) for the Paladin, and maybe 70 hours for the Hermit (not to mention I would level up, 8 to 10 times).
& things like Leprechauns with limited spawn have a more constant limit, in their case approx. 1000 per hour.
Maps with pure spawn are easier targets too, since you can get an accurate idea of meso & pot drops.
I know enough statistics to get the basics down, I'm not sure how the numbers work out for rarer stuff (eg. throwing stars, scrolls) which I've observed to be in excess 1 in 50000 in some cases (making it hard to get a good idea of actual rarity - when you can kill 200,000 and still have found zero (in the case of a 1 in 100,000 drop, there's about a 1 in 8 chance of finding none after 200k), it does point to being more than a single person is up for). The more people contributing the better, of course.
Harrisonized
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Ilbis from wolf spiders:
1 in 20,000.
I'm not making up this number.
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2009-04-18, 10:27 PM
(This post was last modified: 2009-04-18, 10:29 PM by MasPan.)
Harrisonized Wrote:Ilbis from wolf spiders:
1 in 20,000.
I'm not making up this number.
Data should be presented in a similar manner to the way I did my Cold Eye thread -
Number killed (Found out by exp after - exp before/ exp per monster), All drops possible (monster book data, with any unlisted drops at the end), # of each drop. Total meso gain/# killed will give average meso gain (obviously not the meso per monster, because not all kills = meso gain). Etc count should be recorded as well if possible (although not everyone has the etc space for several hundred/thousand etcs). And yes, 25,000 may be a bit high for higher level/low-spawn monsters, so, at first anyway, I'll limit this to pure and high-spawning monsters. Most NLC monsters, Evil Eyes (Jr Boogies won't interfere much, as they don't drop equips/scrolls anyway). Monster Book cards should also be recorded. I will not take any information that is simply an "accepted number."
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MasPan Wrote:I will not take any information that is simply an "accepted number." Eh? I'm not going back to wolf spiders. I misted them from 100~130 and that number is from data that I gathered. If you really want, you can do the work.
http://www.southperry.net/forums/showthread.php?t=530
Good luck, because the exp from the screenshots at the bottom of guide aren't only from wolf spiders, they're from other monsters as well.
Here's the "evidence" though, from my guide. Take it or leave it.
~~~~~
Quote:Using the data below, I have determined that Ilbis have a 1/20,000 chance (0.005%) of dropping from a Wolf Spider. IDK the rate compared to other places, but Wolf Spiders have the highest density (spawn / map size), thus is the best place to hunt for ilbis. The data is pretty consistent, since the number of rotations pretty much matched the average training time for an ilbi to drop. However, most people will get either 60 rotations or below.
* When I ask my friends, they say that they barely make 60 rotations an hour. Using 60 as the multiplier, since there are 35 spiders in the map, thats about 2100 spiders killed per hour, or 2.5 mil exp per hour. (average of 9 hours per Ilbi.)
* As I got better at it, (and maxed Mist, Explosion, and Booster), I found that as a third job mage, I can consistently get 72 rotations an hour. Since there are 35 spiders in the map, that's about 2450 spiders killed per hour, or 2.9 mil exp an hour. (average of 8 hours per Ilbi.)
* As an Arch Mage (with Lv 12 Elquines, Lv 7 Fire Demon, and Paralyze), I can get about 80 rotations an hour. Since there are 35 spiders in the map, thats about 2800 spiders an hour, which equates to about 3.3 mil EXP per hour. (average of 7 hours per Ilbi.)
Rotations per hour means how many times I can go around the map in an hour. There is a set amount of wolf spiders in a map so spawn is pretty much stable and continuous. The data is according to how long I've been misting there before an ilbi drops.
I recorded the average number of hours it took to find an ilbi, and used other sources as well.
~~~~~
I don't think this thread will be very successful. Nobody's going to contribute "only a few hours" to your cause, because people only care about the major drops. The other drops are NPC ect and nobody isn't going to look at those unless they're something rare like that Burning Gun. If you want to know, it takes on average of 8 hours for a 3rd job FP to get 20K monsters, and you're requesting 25K. That's over 10 hours of work.
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Don't know how useful it is, but I have full drop info from my Paladin since level 50.
Every equip, every scroll, every throwing star for 73 levels >_> The hard part is figuring out how much time I spent training on specific monsters, how many I killed. And of course, level 50-89 were pre-Aqua Road, thus using the old tables.
Still useful for generalities though, I think... like relative rates of armor/weapon/star/scrolls. I know I got the impression weapons/stars are rarer, but it may be due to the fact that most monsters drop 10-12 armors and 1-2 weapons & scrolls, and only 1 star.
Posting Freak
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Stereo Wrote:Don't know how useful it is, but I have full drop info from my Paladin since level 50.
Every equip, every scroll, every throwing star for 73 levels >_> The hard part is figuring out how much time I spent training on specific monsters, how many I killed. And of course, level 50-89 were pre-Aqua Road, thus using the old tables.
Still useful for generalities though, I think... like relative rates of armor/weapon/star/scrolls. I know I got the impression weapons/stars are rarer, but it may be due to the fact that most monsters drop 10-12 armors and 1-2 weapons & scrolls, and only 1 star.
Cold eyes drop a ton of the claws and xbows, but very few axes. May be related to levels of respective gear, or simply built-in rarities. But yes, weapons in general seem to be more rare (which makes sense, as they are more valuable and more class-specific than armor). Throwing stars are more rare than equips, and scrolls more rare than stars. Haven't figured out where cards fall in, but seems to be Equips > Cards > Stars
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I'll start recording everything.
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»-Chris->' Wrote:I'll start recording everything.
Thank you, that helps a ton 
Really, even having people send in random monster drop/# killed data could help in a long term study. Again, I appreciate any support/effort people give, I really want to see what SP'rs can do with a large database full of information
This could also help to determine if an item is dropping far more than it should be, or perhaps far less (I've considered sending a ticket to Nexon regarding Pink Moon Cone Hats from Cold Eyes dropping 3-4 times as often as other equips, and mana elixers not dropping at all).
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MasPan Wrote:Thank you, that helps a ton 
Really, even having people send in random monster drop/# killed data could help in a long term study. Again, I appreciate any support/effort people give, I really want to see what SP'rs can do with a large database full of information 
This could also help to determine if an item is dropping far more than it should be, or perhaps far less (I've considered sending a ticket to Nexon regarding Pink Moon Cone Hats from Cold Eyes dropping 3-4 times as often as other equips, and mana elixers not dropping at all).
I've sent a request on MSN, if you'd care to discuss this.
I have some question and such.
Posting Freak
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»-Chris->' Wrote:I've sent a request on MSN, if you'd care to discuss this.
I have some question and such.
Sure, but I'm at work right now (12 hour night shift + weekend = fail). More than happy to discuss via PMs though (just give me half an hour or so to finish what I'm working on).
Posting Freak
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Here's a thought: If we can get the data for even just one monster, that can be used as a ground rule for the drop rates of other monsters. The data of drops in general can be categorized into 4 sections:
1. Regular monsters
2. Rare monsters (the kinds that only appear once in a while, like D. Roy in Magatia, or Chief Gray in Omega Sector)
3. Area Bosses
4. Bosses
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2009-04-19, 12:50 AM
(This post was last modified: 2009-04-19, 12:54 AM by MasPan.)
IllegallySane Wrote:Here's a thought: If we can get the data for even just one monster, that can be used as a ground rule for the drop rates of other monsters. It can be categorized into 4 sections:
1. Regular monsters
2. Rare monsters (the kinds that only appear once in a while, like D. Roy in Magatia, or Chief Gray in Omega Sector)
3. Area Bosses
4. Bosses
The idea was mostly inspired by Cold Eyes, who have an infamously high droprate for Pink Moon Cone Hats in relation to other drops. This indicates that individual items may have higher base rates than other items. I'm hesistant to include rare monsters simply because it'd be next to impossible to get enough data on them to come up with accurate figures without the use of a private server that magically had the exact same droprates and server information as gMS, but with 1000 times the spawn of bosses. If we can get this into a serious database, then I'll look into it, but for now, anyways, rare monsters and bosses are a bit lofty of a goal. As for the generalization, we'd need about 5-10 monsters in varying continents/areas/level ranges before we could really say that (who knows if snails have higher droprates, etc). It'd be interesting to compare Mapleversary event droprates with non-event as well, as it may give insights into the drop system (individual drop rolls for each item or rolls to determine IF a drop, then WHAT drops).
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MasPan Wrote:Haven't figured out where cards fall in, but seems to be Equips > Cards > Stars The way I see it, after card hunting many monsters, some for several hours.
Mesos/Etc. Drops > Potions > Ores > Armors > Weapons > Cards > Stars/Bullets > Scrolls
Haven't hunted monsters that drop Skillbooks yet, so I don't know where that group falls in.
MasPan Wrote:(individual drop rolls for each item or rolls to determine IF a drop, then WHAT drops). Probably the first. I've gotten two equips from a type of Chronos, in one kill.
But, whatever, I'll help out in any way I can.
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Loose Wrote:The way I see it, after card hunting many monsters, some for several hours.
Mesos/Etc. Drops > Potions > Ores > Armors > Weapons > Cards > Stars/Bullets > Scrolls
Haven't hunted monsters that drop Skillbooks yet, so I don't know where that group falls in.
Probably the first. I've gotten two equips from a type of Chronos, in one kill.
But, whatever, I'll help out in any way I can.
Thank you, much obliged. And as for the 2nd possibility, there could always be a "if item drops, roll to see what, then roll again for 2nd item" type deal. Anyways, skillbooks seem to be somewhere between stars/scrolls.
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Sounds like an ambitious project. Best of luck.
[/useless post]
Posting Freak
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Russt Wrote:Sounds like an ambitious project. Best of luck.
[/useless post]
Thanks - less ambitious if people help
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The pink conehat thing is just because the level requirement on them is much lower than the level of coldeyes. Chance of equipment dropping is generally based on the relation between the equipment's level req and the monster's level, with weapons, stars, and scrolls dropping much less frequently of course.
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Cyanne Wrote:The pink conehat thing is just because the level requirement on them is much lower than the level of coldeyes. Chance of equipment dropping is generally based on the relation between the equipment's level req and the monster's level, with weapons, stars, and scrolls dropping much less frequently of course.
Is there data to back that up, or is that just an accepted "fact?" I've noticed similar correlations, but I was intending to base this as much as possible on hard numbers. That may be a valid explanation, but there is no way to prove that without actually comparing drop rates.
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Well, you can't really prove or disprove that without an infinite amount of data either; it's pretty much impossible to reverse engineer such low probabilities. I also forgot to mention that some items are set probabilities, such as mushmom spores dropping at a 100% rate or ilbis dropping from wolf spiders at an abnormally high rate.
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