Hmm.
I still lean towards my more conservative figures due to the extreme number that will be hitting the market early on the sheer desperation for all those individuals to be making any profit after soaking several dozen/hundred mil into refining.
Course wouldn't be the first time the Maple economy made absolutely no sense. Pudding hats, i'm looking at you.
It's not having what you want - It's wanting what you've got.
And that's just KMS prices, I can't even imagine prices here in GMS, especially in Scania. ;x Might be more than it's in KMS. In Scania it probably will be.
But then again, diamonds are easier to get here because of APQ, so it might just be the same price anyway, or a bit lower.
I've been getting alot of diamonds aswell lately, but I think I'll just sell them in their current form, not going to upgrade. Knowing my luck, I probably won't get many high grade diamonds, so yeah. >_>
Fiel Wrote:Thank you for your input, Ohmer. Stay around - we'd love to hear what it's like in other versions.
Anyway, I've created a simulator in python to find the average amount of profit (sales - costs) considering my current situation.
I evaluated the following questions:
1. How much meso can be made by upgrading everything to HQ?
2. Upgrade MQ to HQ, but not LQ to MQ.
3. How much meso can be made by upgrading LQ to MQ, but not MQ to HQ?
4. How much meso can be made by doing no upgrades at all?
Here were my results: 1. Upgrade everything to HQ: 12.5b 2. Upgrade MQ to HQ, but not LQ to MQ: 13.5b 3. Upgrade LQ to MQ, but not MQ to HQ: 15.5b 4. No upgrades: 15.8b
There are several things to consider here:
1. It's probably harder to sell 1 WATK diamonds since people want the better quality 2 WATK ones. So that makes the upgrade more worthwhile since it will decrease the amount of time the item is stuck in inventory. This alone makes #3 the best option.
2. The amount of time invested into upgrading diamonds is large. Through my calculations, It will take me nearly 6 hours of constant appraising, and then I have to upgrade! So I have to manage my time wisely.
Here's the script I used: (Lemme know if I made any mistakes)
#Amount of passes through the guessing function
NUM_PASSES = 1000
import random
for x in range(NUM_PASSES):
#Begin appraising all of the diamonds
for i in range(NUM_DIAMONDS):
cost += COST_TO_APPRAISE
prob = random.random()
if prob > PROB_APPRAISE_MQ:
HighQual += 1
elif prob > PROB_APPRAISE_LQ:
MidQual += 1
else:
LowQual += 1
#Pretty printer to make big numbers easier to read
def Thousands(num):
num = str(num)
thousand = ''
for i in range(len(num)):
if i % 3 == 0 and i != 0:
thousand = ',' + thousand
thousand = num[-1-i] + thousand
return thousand
Aw crap. 40m for a high grade? There's is NO way I'm paying that much for my needed HQ crystals. Rather than make a new thread I'll just ask it here:
1. For a Buccaneer, what are the best monsters to farm up DEX, Wisdom, Diamond and Opal ores? I ask for these because I require nothing else for my pirate. DEX for obvious reasons (accuracy, to be able to equip higher level equipment as DEXless, and avoid is always nice). Wisdom for an easy 10 INT on crafted shoes and gloves. Diamonds to mass create MQs to hope to scroll a 100 knuckle. Opals for the avoid when the equipment has two slots.
Well... Apparently I need a lot more Wisdom crystals just to get my shoes and gloves HQ'ed... T_T
On the bright side, if I got the shoes early on and I was hard up for money, I could sell 'em for a pretty penny for all the lazy people.
Upgrading all those jewels gives me something to do while I'm chatting in town, I guess!
Also, I'm actually liking the odds for jewels, not crystals... My dexless page could really use some high-grade garnets on her shoes, and this may make crafting a top/bottom set for her more viable as an alternative to her current overall. I'm still pretty upset that I NPC'ed some of the garnets I got from training at Wraiths for 25 levels...
@IllegallySane: Diamond ores are pretty rare as a drop, so I would just try to buy refined ones off of APQ'ers if you can't APQ yourself. For the others, I'd check Hidden Street and pick a monster with good spawn in a map where you can murder. I heard Windraiders spam DEX crystals, though. (Poor people training on them right after Maker comes out! )
IllegallySane Wrote:Aw crap. 40m for a high grade? There's is NO way I'm paying that much for my needed HQ crystals. Rather than make a new thread I'll just ask it here:
1. For a Buccaneer, what are the best monsters to farm up DEX, Wisdom, Diamond and Opal ores? I ask for these because I require nothing else for my pirate. DEX for obvious reasons (accuracy, to be able to equip higher level equipment as DEXless, and avoid is always nice). Wisdom for an easy 10 INT on crafted shoes and gloves. Diamonds to mass create MQs to hope to scroll a 100 knuckle. Opals for the avoid when the equipment has two slots.
Going off of what hidden-street says for the monsters that drop dex ores,I'd assume these monsters are best for each of those types:
Dex Crystal ores:Samiho, Fly Eye, Straw Target Dummy, Meercat, Scorpion, Grizzly, Windraider, Birk, Dual Birk, Blue Kentaurus, Red Wyverns.
Wisdom Crystal Ores: Jr. Lioner, Jr. Grupin, Bloctopus, Moon Bunny, Lioner, (potentially) Site, Captain, Wolf Spider, Blood Haf, Risell Squid, Skelegon.
Opal Ore: Jr. Wraith, Bloctopus, Fly Eye, Grizzly, Samiho, Sage Cat, Risell Squid, Jr. Newtie.
These are based on my own knowledge of these maps, and the spawn of the mobs in question. It's not based on the rate at which they drop the ores. Some maps are also likely more suited to an ultimate using Magician than a Buccaneer (Blood Hafs are one example of this, as are Red Wyverns). They may not all work for you, but hopefully this will help you somewhat.
2009-05-25, 03:15 PM (This post was last modified: 2009-05-25, 03:24 PM by Nikkey.)
Fiel Wrote:Thank you for your input, Ohmer. Stay around - we'd love to hear what it's like in other versions.
Anyway, I've created a simulator in python to find the average amount of profit (sales - costs) considering my current situation.
I evaluated the following questions:
1. How much meso can be made by upgrading everything to HQ?
2. Upgrade MQ to HQ, but not LQ to MQ.
3. How much meso can be made by upgrading LQ to MQ, but not MQ to HQ?
4. How much meso can be made by doing no upgrades at all?
Here were my results: 1. Upgrade everything to HQ: 12.5b 2. Upgrade MQ to HQ, but not LQ to MQ: 13.5b 3. Upgrade LQ to MQ, but not MQ to HQ: 15.5b 4. No upgrades: 15.8b
There are several things to consider here:
1. It's probably harder to sell 1 WATK diamonds since people want the better quality 2 WATK ones. So that makes the upgrade more worthwhile since it will decrease the amount of time the item is stuck in inventory. This alone makes #3 the best option.
2. The amount of time invested into upgrading diamonds is large. Through my calculations, It will take me nearly 6 hours of constant appraising, and then I have to upgrade! So I have to manage my time wisely.
Here's the script I used: (Lemme know if I made any mistakes)
#Amount of passes through the guessing function
NUM_PASSES = 1000
import random
for x in range(NUM_PASSES):
#Begin appraising all of the diamonds
for i in range(NUM_DIAMONDS):
cost += COST_TO_APPRAISE
prob = random.random()
if prob > PROB_APPRAISE_MQ:
HighQual += 1
elif prob > PROB_APPRAISE_LQ:
MidQual += 1
else:
LowQual += 1
#Pretty printer to make big numbers easier to read
def Thousands(num):
num = str(num)
thousand = ''
for i in range(len(num)):
if i % 3 == 0 and i != 0:
thousand = ',' + thousand
thousand = num[-1-i] + thousand
return thousand
for x in range(NUM_PASSES):
#Begin appraising all of the diamonds
cost = COST_TO_APPRAISE * NUM_DIAMONDS ## Faster
for i in range(NUM_DIAMONDS):
prob = random.random()
if prob > PROB_APPRAISE_MQ:
HighQual += 1
elif prob > PROB_APPRAISE_LQ:
MidQual += 1
else:
LowQual += 1
These are based on my own knowledge of these maps, and the spawn of the mobs in question. It's not based on the rate at which they drop the ores. Some maps are also likely more suited to an ultimate using Magician than a Buccaneer (Blood Hafs are one example of this, as are Red Wyverns). They may not all work for you, but hopefully this will help you somewhat.
Ooo, I assume that is in order of preferred mobs? It does help a lot then. Thank you.
Looking at all this I am probably going to go in this order:
Pure drop:
DEX: Samiho (If I feel like camping Nine-tails)/STD (because it's one flat map)
WIS: Site (one small map = happy melee), Skelegons (when training)
Opal: Jr. Wraith
Diamond: Drum Bunnies (and hope for a Chaos scroll as well)
IllegallySane Wrote:Ooo, I assume that is in order of preferred mobs? It does help a lot then. Thank you.
Looking at all this I am probably going to go in this order:
Pure drop:
DEX: Samiho (If I feel like camping Nine-tails)/STD (because it's one flat map)
WIS: Site (one small map = happy melee), Skelegons (when training)
Opal: Jr. Wraith
Diamond: Drum Bunnies (and hope for a Chaos scroll as well)
Mix:
DEX/Opal: Samiho
I'm quite sure that's by the level, and not by the preferred mobs.
IllegallySane Wrote:Ooo, I assume that is in order of preferred mobs? It does help a lot then. Thank you.
Looking at all this I am probably going to go in this order:
Pure drop:
DEX: Samiho (If I feel like camping Nine-tails)/STD (because it's one flat map)
WIS: Site (one small map = happy melee), Skelegons (when training)
Opal: Jr. Wraith
Diamond: Drum Bunnies (and hope for a Chaos scroll as well)
Mix:
DEX/Opal: Samiho
It's based on level, not preference. I just went through the list saw what dropped them, and recalled which maps were atrocious for mobbing, which were difficult to move from one group of enemies to another, which were spawning just by themselves on a specific map, and the size of the map which they spawn on.
I really never spent enough time training on the majority of these maps/paying attention to the drop rates of these ores to determine if some drop them more frequently than others. For that you'll be on your own unfortunately .
eos367 Wrote:Simulation indicates these are attainable goals w/ approximately 60% chance to achieve all goals or an ~86% chance overall of accomplishing.
Spoiler
Simulation 1 - 5/6 goals met.
Label
Phase
High
Mid
Low
Cost
Goal Met
Str
Appraisal
1
3
21
2,500,000
TRUE
Dex
Appraisal
1
45
139
18,500,000
FALSE
Dex
Upgrading Lows
1
56
6
10,200,000
FALSE
Dex
Upgrading Mids
3
9
6
14,500,000
FALSE
Topaz
Appraisal
4
12
45
6,100,000
TRUE
Aquamarine
Appraisal
3
13
53
6,900,000
TRUE
Opal
Appraisal
2
7
20
2,900,000
TRUE
Total Cost
61,600,000
Simulation 2 - 4/6 Goals Met
Label
Phase
High
Mid
Low
Cost
Goal Met
Str
Appraisal
0
10
60
7,000,000
FALSE
Str
Upgrading Lows
0
14
7
5,100,000
FALSE
Str
Upgrading Mids
0
9
7
2,500,000
FALSE
Dex
Appraisal
2
45
138
18,500,000
FALSE
Dex
Upgrading Lows
2
56
1
11,400,000
FALSE
Dex
Upgrading Mids
4
30
1
800,000
TRUE
Topaz
Appraisal
4
15
107
12,600,000
TRUE
Aquamarine
Appraisal
3
21
66
9,000,000
TRUE
Total Cost
66,900,000
Simulation 3 - 5/6 Goals met - Price went over, marginally.
Label
Phase
High
Mid
Low
Cost
Goal Met
Str
Appraisal
0
6
64
7,000,000
FALSE
Str
Upgrading Lows
0
12
0
3,000,000
FALSE
Str
Upgrading Mids
1
2
0
100,000
TRUE
Dex
Appraisal
2
35
148
18,500,000
FALSE
Dex
Upgrading Lows
2
46
1
14,400,000
FALSE
Dex
Upgrading Mids
4
25
1
300,000
TRUE
Topaz
Appraisal
4
30
124
15,800,000
TRUE
Aquamarine
Appraisal
3
5
29
3,700,000
TRUE
Opal
Appraisal
2
13
64
7,900,000
TRUE
Total Cost
70,700,000
Simulation 4 - All goals met.
Label
Phase
High
Mid
Low
Cost
Goal Met
Str
Appraisal
1
13
25
3,900,000
TRUE
Dex
Appraisal
2
46
137
18,500,000
FALSE
Dex
Upgrading Lows
2
58
9
6,000,000
FALSE
Dex
Upgrading Mids
4
37
9
300,000
TRUE
Topaz
Appraisal
4
12
32
4,800,000
TRUE
Aquamarine
Appraisal
3
13
41
5,700,000
TRUE
Opal
Appraisal
2
6
13
2,100,000
TRUE
Total Cost
41,300,000
Simulation 5 - All goals met
Label
Phase
High
Mid
Low
Cost
Goal Met
Str
Appraisal
0
15
55
7,000,000
FALSE
Str
Upgrading Lows
0
20
3
2,100,000
FALSE
Str
Upgrading Mids
1
8
3
300,000
TRUE
Dex
Appraisal
2
50
133
18,500,000
FALSE
Dex
Upgrading Lows
2
60
8
10,500,000
FALSE
Dex
Upgrading Mids
4
34
8
800,000
TRUE
Topaz
Appraisal
4
25
88
11,700,000
TRUE
Aquamarine
Appraisal
3
18
45
6,600,000
TRUE
Opal
Appraisal
2
6
13
2,100,000
TRUE
Total Cost
59,600,000
Thank you kindly. I hope to increase these odds by the time I sell off my 3 above avg maple weaps that I found, but this is promising to me. If it isn't too much trouble, another question.
Would I be better off for the same goals if I was to remain at current meso value or if I was to purchase refined dex (seeing as that is the highest need for upgrading post appraisal) at a rate of 400k per crystal?
I intend to increase mesos regardless before the next patch, but I just thought that this could be a decent question for others who actually want to make stuff versus selling the gems as an example for the relative poor.
For Opals just train at Newties. It's only a little slower than Skelegons for most classes and I've gotten maybe 500-600 ores over there. In fact, half of my ore/jewel/crystal collection is composed of Wisdom/Opal/Bronze.
LongShotJohn Wrote:Would I be better off for the same goals if I was to remain at current meso value or if I was to purchase refined dex (seeing as that is the highest need for upgrading post appraisal) at a rate of 400k per crystal?
The more you have for your initial grading the more chance you have of getting your target number for the least expense. Your price exponentially rises as you are forced to upgrade.
By doubling the number of refined crystals/jewels you start with the simulation is capable of meeting all goals without upgrading, except for Dex.
You need ~400 dex crystals to succeed at getting 4 and that raises your costs beyond threshold. For that purpose it actually comes out cheaper on the dex crystals to do upgrades because the materials are already available have a significantly higher potential to become your target than the 1 in 100 chance the ungraded have.
It's not having what you want - It's wanting what you've got.
Stereo Wrote:How are the costs of making High grade Dex Crystals affected by not bothering to assess the low-grades? I thought of this later...
Yeah, I had looked at that last night.
It invariably comes out cheaper to skip the low grades entirely because you're not reprocessing them twice... and at low volumes it makes no noticable improvement in your profit potention:
200 of each
Label
Phase
High
Mid
Low
Cost
Diamond
Appraisal
12
43
145
20,100,000
Diamond
Upgrading Lows
12
55
6
9,300,000
Diamond
Upgrading Mids
16
9
6
5,000,000
Total
34,400,000
Diamond - Skip
Appraisal
13
42
145
20,100,000
Diamond - Skip
Upgrading Mids
15
9
145
7,500,000
Total
27,600,000
Wis
Appraisal
3
60
137
20,000,000
Wis
Upgrading Lows
3
71
8
9,000,000
Wis
Upgrading Mids
8
1
8
12,500,000
Total
41,500,000
Wis - Skip
Appraisal
3
60
137
20,000,000
Wis - Skip
Upgrading Mids
7
9
137
7,500,000
Total
27,500,000
At high volumes it's not much better either:
2000 of each
Label
Phase
High
Mid
Low
Cost
Diamond
Appraisal
112
360
1528
200,100,000
Diamond
Upgrading Lows
112
489
0
110,100,000
Diamond
Upgrading Mids
150
4
0
71,500,000
Total
381,700,000
Diamond - Skip
Appraisal
109
396
1495
200,100,000
Diamond - Skip
Upgrading Mids
139
7
1495
59,500,000
Total
259,600,000
Wis
Appraisal
16
511
1473
200,000,000
Wis
Upgrading Lows
16
638
9
96,300,000
Wis
Upgrading Mids
68
9
9
80,500,000
Total
376,800,000
Wis - Skip
Appraisal
23
551
1426
200,000,000
Wis - Skip
Upgrading Mids
67
2
1426
76,500,000
Total
276,500,000
The break even cost / profit margin is much better discarding lows entirely, but depending on how much highs actually go for they can turn a decent profit on thier own.
It's not having what you want - It's wanting what you've got.
2009-05-25, 06:28 PM (This post was last modified: 2009-05-25, 06:31 PM by Stereo.)
Yeah, it's dependent on material costs - buying
+ 4 unprocessed crystals
+ 400k (for the 25% mid-grade)
- 3 low-grade sold
- 1 mid-grade sold
vs.
+ 10.5 low-grade
+ 500k
- 1 mid-grade sold
I'm assuming low-grade will end up worth less than ungraded, by looking at this - balance is found when the 4 un - 3 low ~= 10.5 low => 4 un = 13.5 low
2009-05-25, 06:32 PM (This post was last modified: 2009-05-25, 07:42 PM by Eos.)
Stereo Wrote:Yeah, it's dependent on material costs
It's quite possible that low-grade will end up worth less than the unrefined crystals.
Although it's equally possible that the low grade cast offs will sell for cheap enough to make a profit for people willing to buy them en masse and spend a fortune converting them, simply because anyone who refines and retails high grade in sufficient quantity will more than recoup the majority of thier processing expense off those highs and view the lows as extra garbage that they can cheaply eliminate as pure profit to recover slots.
It's not having what you want - It's wanting what you've got.
.
