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200 Watch - ETAs for GMS

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200 Watch - ETAs for GMS
Eos
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#1
2009-03-17, 01:59 AM (This post was last modified: 2010-12-29, 10:45 AM by Eos.)
Estimates are current through 12/28/2010
Welcome to the 200-Spotting Thread. Here you can see who's next on target to reach 200, and how soon. Note that this is not a standard user-generated ranking list. These are mathmatically derived estimates based on the past two weeks performance. There is absolutely no hacking discussion in this thread. Noone will be removed from this list, period, because it's not a legitimacy list, it's a list of who's going to reach 200 when, regardless of who they are or how they're getting there. As soon as someone moves in scope, they appear. As soon as they're out of scope, they drop off.

200s will be kept at the top of their respective worlds until they pass the two week period, they will be omitted from overall GMS results however. Thread normally updates daily, when possible.

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By World
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By World By Class
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Level 200 Distributions
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modular
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#2
2009-03-17, 02:27 AM
i find it vaguely amusing to make a dumb generalization that server activity is closely related to the average days to lvl200 for the top 10 xp gainers on each server.

bellocan and the 3 most recent servers are really dead :/
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#3
2009-03-17, 02:53 AM
modular Wrote:bellocan and the 3 most recent servers are really dead :/

And yet idiots are already trying to get hype up for El Nido as if we need another server when we have barest populations actively leveling in four worlds, and only half the channels in those.
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Kevo
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#4
2009-03-17, 03:21 AM
modular Wrote:bellocan and the 3 most recent servers are really dead :/

I guess SYNlSTER is the exception. Suspicious...
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Anzamyu
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#5
2009-03-17, 03:51 AM
I know endless of bera, go endless go bera go bera >O
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MaplesGrandGM
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#6
2009-03-17, 11:02 AM
Hmm, D3vii.

Interesting list.
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#7
2009-03-17, 02:38 PM
haha, for being one of the last servers to get a lvl 200, bello is gonna have a lot soon Big Grin
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#8
2009-03-17, 03:06 PM
MaplesGrandGM Wrote:Hmm, D3vii.

Hmm, indeed. It's really sad to see certain characters on this list, but yeah...not a legitimacy list.

It is cool, though. There's a few people I had forgotten were so high already.
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#9
2009-03-17, 03:51 PM
I don't really understand your way of estimating how long it'll take until they hit 200. I know I'll go for 4-5 days gaining less than 10% a day, then spend another two days grinding more than 4 hours on 2x, and level several times. Not everyone is outputting a steady exp gain like a machine. I'm sure the people that are really close are probably more motivated to finish the job than the ones that are still early 19x, and would be willing to pull extra hours to hit 200.

Also, a column for which class they are would be cool.
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#10
2009-03-17, 04:21 PM
Dusk Wrote:Also, a column for which class they are would be cool.

The majority are wearing 1h weapon + shield, and in a lot of those cases it's even visibly a mage weapon. Only a couple are even questionable >_>
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#11
2009-03-17, 04:25 PM
Dusk Wrote:I don't really understand your way of estimating how long it'll take until they hit 200. I know I'll go for 4-5 days gaining less than 10% a day, then spend another two days grinding more than 4 hours on 2x, and level several times. Not everyone is outputting a steady exp gain like a machine. I'm sure the people that are really close are probably more motivated to finish the job than the ones that are still early 19x, and would be willing to pull extra hours to hit 200.

Also, a column for which class they are would be cool.

scan the ranks for characters. take a "snapshot". several days later do it again and look at the change in xp.

next do some manipulation: divide xp gained by number of days since you last ran the program. call this xp per day. divide total remaining xp to reach 200 by xp per day, and you get a number of days till someone reaches 200. sift the 10 smallest numbers to the top.

its an average. these people may train every other day and gain 800m xp per day, but itll average out to 400m xp per day. the longer you take the average the better the data.
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Eos
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#12
2009-03-17, 05:26 PM (This post was last modified: 2009-03-17, 05:48 PM by Eos.)
modular Wrote:the longer you take the average the better the data.

Actually that doesn't hold true with this form of data for two reasons -
  1. You tend to kill faster and gain more xp as you gain in levels, so your lower levels from further back in time would drop the average.
  2. People tend to push harder during events and near a levelup, making more recent data more accurate indication of future progress.

That's why I only use a two week period. What you were getting three months ago isn't honestly relevant to your current progress due to the constantly changing variables.

Dusk Wrote:I don't really understand your way of estimating how long it'll take until they hit 200. I know I'll go for 4-5 days gaining less than 10% a day, then spend another two days grinding more than 4 hours on 2x, and level several times. Not everyone is outputting a steady exp gain like a machine.

Also, a column for which class they are would be cool.

Didn't notice the Job column was missing, I've put it back in. (Also random thanks to Fiel for cleanup, for some reason SP randomly truncates my posts every now and then. ).

As for the estimate, keep in mind that your average rate of gain is specific to you, using your own results rather than comparing you to other people. It's quite easy to extrapolate your progress based on how you've been behaving at any given time. Think of it like a cross country driving trip. If you've got 1000 miles to go and drive 80 miles, 100 miles, 120 miles, 50 miles over the course of four days you've traveled 350 out of 1000 miles and can be assumed that if you continue driving at that rate (approximately 88 miles a day) you'll reach your destination in 650/88 days ( your 8th day, because 7.33 means "during the 8th day".
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modular
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#13
2009-03-17, 06:23 PM
eos367 Wrote:Actually that doesn't hold true with this form of data for two reasons -
  1. You tend to kill faster and gain more xp as you gain in levels, so your lower levels from further back in time would drop the average.
  2. People tend to push harder during events and near a levelup, making more recent data more accurate indication of future progress.

That's why I only use a two week period. What you were getting three months ago isn't honestly relevant to your current progress due to the constantly changing variables.

my point was more that you cant just do this every day because a day isnt a long enough period of time to get something meaningful out of the data.
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#14
2009-03-17, 06:40 PM
modular Wrote:my point was more that you cant just do this every day because a day isnt a long enough period of time to get something meaningful out of the data.

Having watched the Mardia version of this daily for more than six months now, I disagree.
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KatanaKiwi
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#15
2009-03-17, 07:17 PM
and im not going to reach 200? why? for a 18x im leveling pretty fast imo, almost a level a week since i started training again (2 weeks ago xD but still)
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Eos
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#16
2009-03-17, 07:33 PM
KatanaKiwi Wrote:and im not going to reach 200? why? for a 18x im leveling pretty fast imo, almost a level a week since i started training again (2 weeks ago xD but still)

You not being in the next 10 to make 200 in your world at this time is not the same as saying you're not going to make to 200. You're #13 in Kradia, now hush. If you wanna show up on the list, work harder or wait for others to fall off.
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#17
2009-03-17, 08:54 PM
modular Wrote:scan the ranks for characters. take a "snapshot". several days later do it again and look at the change in xp.

next do some manipulation: divide xp gained by number of days since you last ran the program. call this xp per day. divide total remaining xp to reach 200 by xp per day, and you get a number of days till someone reaches 200. sift the 10 smallest numbers to the top.

its an average. these people may train every other day and gain 800m xp per day, but itll average out to 400m xp per day. the longer you take the average the better the data.

Sorry, let me rephrase. I know how it's done. I don't believe that the average exp gain over the most recent two weeks is a reliable indicator of when the person will hit level 200, because most people don't level at a consistent pace.
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#18
2009-03-17, 08:59 PM (This post was last modified: 2009-03-17, 09:33 PM by Typhoon.)
zzzzzzzzz
editted.. -__-
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Eos
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#19
2009-03-17, 11:24 PM (This post was last modified: 2009-03-17, 11:26 PM by Eos.)
Server hiccupped.
It's not having what you want - It's wanting what you've got.
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Eos
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#20
2009-03-17, 11:25 PM
Dusk Wrote:Sorry, let me rephrase. I know how it's done. I don't believe that the average exp gain over the most recent two weeks is a reliable indicator of when the person will hit level 200, because most people don't level at a consistent pace.

It's as directionally accurate as possible, and better than anything else available. It serves as a nice reality check. It's not telling you when you're going to hit too. It's telling you when a person will hit 200 under the conditions they are currently leveling.

You're focusing entirely too much on it being a to the minute identifier, when that's not what it's meant to be, not what it's presented as and not how things work. It's a windsock. It tells you what direction the wind is blowing today. Just go with it and stop over-analyzing.
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