KhainiWest Wrote:I find it surprisingly you don't actually know why people believe we have an obligation, we signed a treaty known as the Budapest Memorandum, although it's not a guaranteed protection it seems a lot of our foreign policy is backed more by reputation than anything it seems
I just didn't know about it. :/ The Memorandum does make things a bit more interesting at least.
KhainiWest Wrote:Actually their relations have been fantastic for the last year and a half in fact, that's why the possibility is there, especially since they think the west has this outdated cold war mentality. Believe me, the chances of Russia being assisted by the chinese over this Ukraine thing is pretty significant
I'm not denying that their relations have improved. I just don't see China cooperating with Russia because it's not exactly in their mutual interest, especially with a chance of EU and US intervention. Not to mention that would be contrary to why they said no to intervention in Syria anyways. But I guess it is always a possibility.
[MENTION=8722]DarkForgeJ[/MENTION]; You misinterpreted the part of the post you quoted.
Jamesie Wrote:I'm not denying that their relations have improved. I just don't see China cooperating with Russia because it's not exactly in their mutual interest, especially with a chance of EU and US intervention. Not to mention that would be contrary to why they said no to intervention in Syria anyways. But I guess it is always a possibility.
We can agree to disagree but my personal opinion is the whole "common enemy" is enough in this case
Well, just pondering, if China does aid Russia then if the US goes against the two can China just not call in all the loans/debt and crush the US financially? So either US allies with a Chinese alliance to save it's finances and probably ends up on the, imo, wrong side and most likely to lose side ORRRrrr get's screwed over by China.
Tay Wrote:Well, just pondering, if China does aid Russia then if the US goes against the two can China just not call in all the loans/debt and crush the US financially? So either US allies with a Chinese alliance to save it's finances and probably ends up on the, imo, wrong side and most likely to lose side ORRRrrr get's screwed over by China.
Lovely
Besides that fact that I seriously doubt China wants to get involved with Russia against the UN/EU/US over Ukraine, it is ridiculous to think that China would get a cent out of the US if they entered a war. It's hard enough to collect $1+ trillion from a country, but it's impossible if you are at war with that same country.
Btw, lol @ the Russian stock market tanking. Serves them right for breaking international law
CrazyForDex Wrote:Besides that fact that I seriously doubt China wants to get involved with Russia against the UN/EU/US over Ukraine, it is ridiculous to think that China would get a cent out of the US if they entered a war. It's hard enough to collect $1+ trillion from a country, but it's impossible if you are at war with that same country.
Btw, lol @ the Russian stock market tanking. Serves them right for breaking international law
Agreed, and I do wonder how many people in China the US is providing with jobs? China's historically had a problem with keeping their people happy.
Sungoon Wrote:Agreed, and I do wonder how many people in China the US is providing with jobs? China's historically had a problem with keeping their people happy.
People tend to overestimate China. Yes, they are a rising powerful state, but they are riddled with problems. China is also quite ambitious when it comes to its desired territories, so I think they really need to pick their battles with the international community. The world is only going to put up with China's s'hit for so long.
Tay Wrote:Well, just pondering, if China does aid Russia then if the US goes against the two can China just not call in all the loans/debt and crush the US financially? So either US allies with a Chinese alliance to save it's finances and probably ends up on the, imo, wrong side and most likely to lose side ORRRrrr get's screwed over by China.
Lovely
Aren't China and Amerikkka so depended on each others import and export, that if they ever really had a war, both economies would collapse?
DavyJonesx Wrote:Aren't China and Amerikkka so depended on each others import and export, that if they ever really had a war, both economies would collapse?
Yea it would be pretty horrendous for both sides, but tbh if we go to war with China, our economic health is the least of our problems
Few things;
China is kind of in an awkward position. They naturally do not like to get involved with things like this, their foreign policy is to stay out of it lol. The problem is Ukraine is their greatest source of of food. In fact Ukraine has a 3 billion dollar debt to china which they pay back in corn.
Considering China's dilemma with population, I can see that their priority would be these food outlets over actual money. In addition too, securing Moscows political stance does two things, stands up to show their dominance towards western influence, kind of standing up to what they consider a bully, and ensures their current arrangement/interests with Ukraine.
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2014-03-06, 01:32 PM (This post was last modified: 2014-03-06, 01:37 PM by CrazyForDex.)
KhainiWest Wrote:Few things;
China is kind of in an awkward position. They naturally do not like to get involved with things like this, their foreign policy is to stay out of it lol. The problem is Ukraine is their greatest source of of food. In fact Ukraine has a 3 billion dollar debt to china which they pay back in corn.
Considering China's dilemma with population, I can see that their priority would be these food outlets over actual money. In addition too, securing Moscows political stance does two things, stands up to show their dominance towards western influence, kind of standing up to what they consider a bully, and ensures their current arrangement/interests with Ukraine.
Interesting article I read last night from Foreign Policy and that discusses China's relationship with Russia in the scope of Ukraine. I think it is pretty relevant to what we are talking about in this thread:
I disagree that China needs to go out of their way to "show their dominance towards western influence." China has already been doing a lot of things that directly contrast with western influence/policies (such as their expansion of their air defense zone and claiming numerous islands in the South China Sea). Not to mention their decision to side with Russia against the Western initiative to disarm and punish Syria after their use of chemical weapons.
Unfortunately I can't see it, the state firewall is stating its a personal website or something. But I haven't found a second source to echo that title, just that the Russians are exaggerating china's backing.
As for your examples, that was my point, they are going to side with Russia on this in a passive state because they don't believe in the USA's tendency to intervene, thus they're more about allowing Russia do what they want to solve their own problem. That's the cards we see right now, if we broke into war, they would sooner side with Russia than us because of something as simple as their shared ideologies.
KhainiWest Wrote:Unfortunately I can't see it, the state firewall is stating its a personal website or something. But I haven't found a second source to echo that title, just that the Russians are exaggerating china's backing.
As for your examples, that was my point, they are going to side with Russia on this in a passive state because they don't believe in the USA's tendency to intervene, thus they're more about allowing Russia do what they want to solve their own problem. That's the cards we see right now, if we broke into war, they would sooner side with Russia than us because of something as simple as their shared ideologies.
Well Foreign Policy is far from a personal opinion website. It's a very legitimate political analysis magazine that has been recommended to me by several of my professors at my university and other prominent political figures. I suppose I'll look for another source once I get home from classes.
I don't see how my examples prove your point. Yes, China has gone to great lengths in the past to express its own agenda in the face of Western influence, but I am arguing that they are not going to side with Russia in this case simply because it would antagonize the West. China doesn't get much out of blindly supporting Russia after they disregard the sovereignty of another nation. This is actually a concern for China and they are likely feeling wary about Russia's recent imperialist foreign policy change.
Here is the article in full:
Spoiler
Foreign Policy article Wrote:Days after Ukraine's deposed President Viktor Yanukovych fled his Kiev palace, an unassuming, mid-level Chinese diplomat appeared before the United Nations Security Council to highlight Beijing's support for the new pro-Western government, marking a rare diplomatic split from Moscow.
"We respect the choice made by the Ukrainian people on the basis of national conditions," Shen Bo, a counselor at China's U.N. mission said in a Feb. 24 statement that went largely unnoticed by the international press.
China and U.N. watchers say Beijing's refusal to blindly follow Moscow's lead during the Ukrainian crisis reflects a deep-seated anxiety about the path that Russian President Vladimir Putin has chosen to pursue.
"China has a pathological fear of other countries meddling in its internal affairs, and to witness Russia so blatantly intervening in Ukraine has to be a source of consternation," Elizabeth Economy, a China specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations, told Foreign Policy in an email exchange. "Russia's actions clearly run up against China's central foreign policy tenet of non-interference in others' internal affairs. It is a policy that has guided Chinese policy in North Korea, Sudan, Iran and Syria. If it were to upend this principle, it would reflect a seminal change in Chinese foreign policy and leave China much weaker in defense of its inaction in other crisis situations."
Still, Shen's comments about Ukraine reflect a significant shift for Beijing. China and Russia have been among the Security Council's steadiest of allies, standing shoulder to shoulder as a counterbalance to the West's big three -- the United States, Britain, and France -- who have dominated Security Council business for much of the past two decades. Moscow and Beijing share a suspicion that the West's big powers seek to use the Security Council to promote their own interests in foreign countries under the guise of promoting democracy and human rights.
Together, Beijing and Moscow have cast their vetoes to quash efforts by George W. Bush's administration to condemn human rights violations by governments in Myanmar and Zimbabwe. More recently, China risked the ire of the Arab world by joining Russia in vetoing three resolutions aimed at curtailing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's brutal campaign of violence.
But the Russian intervention in Crimea has not sat well with a country that has significant commercial interests in Ukraine, and which has long been uneasy about Russia's propensity for using military force to pressure its neighbors. Beijing fears that the use of military force against a sovereign nation sets a precedent that could one day be used against China.
In earlier eras, China objected to the Brezhnev Doctrine, which was used to justify Russian invasions of Czechoslovakia in 1968 and Afghanistan in 1979, on the grounds that it constituted unwarranted interference in the affairs of a sovereign nation. China also broke with Russia after it intervened in neighboring Georgia in 2008 and stripped the pro-Western government of its provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In June 2009, Moscow vetoed a U.N. resolution authorizing the continued presence of nearly 150 U.N. peacekeepers in Georgia, effectively killing off a U.N. effort to monitor Georgia's border with the separatist territory. China abstained from the vote.
On Tuesday, Putin briefed his Chinese counterpart, President Xi Jinping, on events unfolding in Ukraine. Xi spared Putin the kinds of public scolding and threats of repercussions issued in recent weeks by American and European officials. But he didn't take Putin's side. On the contrary, Xi urged Putin not to go it alone, hinting that Moscow should look more favorably on international mediation efforts, according to a statement.
"At present, the situation in Ukraine is highly complicated and sensitive and has regional and global impact," Xi told him, according to a read out of the conversation published by Xinhua, the state-run news agency. "China believes that Russia can coordinate with other parties to push for the political settlement of the issue so as to safeguard regional and world peace and stability. China supports proposals and mediation efforts of the international community that are conducive to reduction of tension."
Edward Luck, a historian of U.N. affairs who began his scholarly career as a Soviet specialist, said the Ukraine crisis underscores the limits of the partnership between Russia and China. As China emerges as a true global powerhouse, its interests have grown more complex, he said, requiring it to act more nimbly in a world where its allies come into conflict. Russia, meanwhile, remains primarily focused on its stature in its own neighborhood.
"I don't think that China sees its position in the world as fundamentally depending on Russian support," Luck told FP. "It's playing a game on a much higher plane, a really global game. Russia is still stuck very much within its own borders and periphery; and that is what matters first and foremost to Russia. China is a dominant power and Russia is a secondary one, and why should China have to bend over backward again to cover the Russian flank? What do they get from it?"
Indeed, China has invested heavily in Ukraine, reportedly signing a deal in the fall of 2012 guaranteeing Kiev would export 300 million tons of corn each year to China in exchange for access to more than $3 billion in loans. Another more recent report indicates that two Chinese state-owned companies will operate a massive swath of farmland the size of Belgium in the eastern region of Dnipropetrovsk, planting crops and raising pigs for consumption back home.
"I think it is easy to exaggerate the importance of the Chinese-Russian alliance; I don't think they have a relationship that you could describe as strategic," Luck said. "It veers from one case to another. We should remember the Soviet-Chinese competition has some legacy and some hangover."
I want to add, despite being against Russia in this situation, I'm not really pleased with how US is acting either. I feel like both countries are making the situation worse, both are being hypocrites and exaggerating things that are in their favour.
A few points to remember:
1. Russian forces have only been in Crimea so far.
2. Crimea consists mostly of people with Russian roots, many (most?) of them seem to be on Russia's side and they were the ones who wanted Russia there.
3. Russia has not used any violence against anyone in Crimea so far (and hopefully won't in the future).
4. The current government is illegal, not chosen by elections and most likely if the government overthrown would've been the west-friendly one, US/EU reaction would be way different.
5. Last but not least, US is not in the position to tell Russia about "breaking international law". We all know what US has done in the past, how many countries it has invaded and started wars with, not giving a crap about international laws, pacts etc. On the other hand, "they did so too" is an excuse that you should hear in elementary school and not in politics, I'm sure Putin understands this as well.
These things aren't black and white, I admit that I first acted as if they were.
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