Show me your lunchbox!

Since whether the scroll passes or not is indeed randomly assorted, you can assume that the more fails you get in a row, the sooner you will get one to pass.

Actually it's the opposite, the more fails you get in the row the longer it is before one passes.:f6:




Here's my 60% scrolling over 150 scrolls, recorded in order.

^^v^^ ^^^^^ ^v^v^ v^^^v ^^^v^ ^^^^^ ^v^^^ ^v^^^ ^^^^^ v^^v^ ^v^^v v^^^v vv^v^ vv^^^ ^^^^^ vv^^^ ^v^^^ vvvv^ ^v^^^ vv^^^ v^v^v ^^^^^ v^^vv ^^^^v v^^^^ ^^^^^ ^^^v^ ^^v^v ^v^^v ^^vv^
71% worked 29% failed - .6% err

Of the 43 failures, 12 were followed by another failure (72% worked 28% failed - 2.5% err). Of the 12 times 2 failed in a row, 3 were followed by another failure (75% work 25% failed - 8% err). Of the 3 times 3 failed in a row, 1 was followed by another failure (66% worked 33% failed - 33% err).

The only thing you can say with confidence is that I have an unusually high chance of 60%s working. The number that have failed stayed consistently at 30% no matter how many previously worked.

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They way it needs to be approached is somewhere in between both arguments in my opinion. Yes each scroll only has a 30% chance to work. If you used 1000 scrolls, about 300 would work and the other 700 would fail.

But if you recorded each time you used a scroll you will obviously find that it is a random assortment of passing and failing, it's extremely rare to find many many passes in a row, and it's also rare to see a whole bunch fails in a row, they are randomly distributed. Since whether the scroll passes or not is indeed randomly assorted, you can assume that the more fails you get in a row, the sooner you will get one to pass.

But either way it's not worth wasting money baiting.

Let me try to explain it again.

You people are saying, "what's the probability of 21 fails in a row"?
well, it's 0.7 ^ 21 = 0.000558
Very rare, as you claimed.

But what's the probability of 20 fails in a row and then success?
it's (0.7 ^ 20 )* 0.3 = 0.000239
Less than half!
So the sequence of 21 fails is actually twice as likely as the sequence of 20 fails and then success.

Meaning: even if you failed 20 30% scrolls in a row, you're still twice as likely to fail the next one than to land it.

Actually it's the opposite, the more fails you get in the row the longer it is before one passes.:f6:

Using that logic, the more times I fail 60% scrolls in a row, the more I'll have to fail before one works.

I.e I failed 2 60%s in a row and the 3rd worked. You're saying if I failed 3 in a row then the odds of failing a 4th are higher than passing the 4th? That's contradicting your own argument.

What I'm saying is there's less of a chance of the next one failing (Looking at the scrolling endeavor as a whole) if you fail several before hand, even though each scroll has a set percent chance of passing (Looking at each scroll independently). You just have to think that it's a bigger picture than each scroll, it's a series of scrolls that have to be taken into account.

Re-edit: Bad math. (What can I say, I take Bio)

I can't argue against the numbers, all I know is I must be really lucky for passing scrolls almost every time (Estimated at 90%+, I'll start recording my scrolling now) after failing 2-3.

Redoubtable, did you read Stereo's post?
Did you look at the "series of scrolls" presented there?

It did not matter how many failures he'd already had in a row, be it 0 or 3, the next scroll would fail at about 30%.

There we go, numbers make more sense. I see what you guys mean now. The only thing I don't understand is why you are multiplying by 0.3 (I know it's representing the chance of passing)

70% chance of failure ^ 20 scrolls = 0.0008 (Rounded to 4 decimal places)
That would be constant for both cases.
Then 0.0008 ^ 70% (aka 0.7) chance of failure = 0.0068 (Again, rounded)
Or 0.0008 ^ 30% (aka 0.3) chance of success = 0.1176 (Rounded to 4 decimal places)

Either my calculator is pineappleed up or I got opposite results.

it's not 0.0008 ^ 70%/30%, it's 0.0008*0.7/0.3

You'll get a 0,00056 chance of missing another one, and 0,00024 chance of hitting.

it's not 0.0008 ^ 70%/30%, it's 0.0008*0.7/0.3

You'll get a 0,00056 chance of missing another one, and 0,00024 chance of hitting.

Yeah I realized that after posting and edited it out. I fail at math.

I'm not arguing for bait scrolling or against it, I just tend to play the devil's advocate with a fair bit of glibness/grandiose sense of my own knowledge. (I was diagnosed with borderline Cyclothymia, currently somewhat manic)

Even with all the data now I'm still going to use valuable scrolls after failing other ones of the same %, because it's worked out for me in the past. (Not baiting, just scrolling something then scroll something of more value to me)

maplestory is not limited to gms alone. 7+ billion to make a 144/21 1h sword >_> some of you guys should try baiting dark scrolls.

Think of it this way: Nexon just removed 7 Billion from the economy since the item is untradeable. An excellent meso sink to curb inflation. And at 144/21 with RK speed, you'll won't find any faster DPS. Until Nexon releases another such overpowered non-tradeable item.

Woah dead thread lives :f6:.

I never thought about the fact that the mesos were being removed from the economy.. because most of them just changed hands. It also inflated one-handed sword scrolls for a while, so I was glad I had bought some before hand.

Think of it this way: Nexon just removed 7 Billion from the economy since the item is untradeable. An excellent meso sink to curb inflation. And at 144/21 with RK speed, you'll won't find any faster DPS. Until Nexon releases another such overpowered non-tradeable item.

Um, no. The mesos only disappear through tax. It's only the scrolls that disappear, since the 7 billion mesos goes to the seller, which will be a player.

What if you happen to get a scroll straight from the source? No mesos involved, other than the potions you bought and wasted killing monsters.

Think of it this way: Nexon just removed 7 Billion from the economy since the item is untradeable. An excellent meso sink to curb inflation. And at 144/21 with RK speed, you'll won't find any faster DPS. Until Nexon releases another such overpowered non-tradeable item.

I HATE THIS CONVENTIONAL WISDOM. ITS DUMB. STOP PERPETUATING IT.

Um, no. The mesos only disappear through tax. It's only the scrolls that disappear, since the 7 billion mesos goes to the seller, which will be a player.

What if you happen to get a scroll straight from the source? No mesos involved, other than the potions you bought and wasted killing monsters.

this is smarter.

things like mounts, where no player profits, are sinks. NOT SCROLLS. except the crappy 100%s you buy from an npc. buy more 100% overall dex and eventually inflation will stop.

I HATE THIS CONVENTIONAL WISDOM. ITS DUMB. STOP PERPETUATING IT.



this is smarter.

things like mounts, where no player profits, are sinks. NOT SCROLLS. except the crappy 100%s you buy from an npc. buy more 100% overall dex and eventually inflation will stop.

First off, according to wikipedia a gold sink: (or for our discussion mesos)

"Gold sink is an economic process by which gold, or any item that can be valued against gold, is removed"

source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_sink

How is applying 7B worth of scrolls to an item that you can never sell or trade not a form of mesos sink. The value of that item is no longer recognized in the economy as a whole. I.e. it's been removed from the economy.

@Kaj
Yes I understand that paying for the scrolls give someone else mesos. If the item was tradeable, the the seller would have 7B and the buyer would have a 7B item. That's still 14 B floating around the economy. The item isn't tradeable so there's only 7B floating. Therefore 7B is still removed.

And you're argument about scrolls is flawed. Nexon makes available to the economy scrolls that have a percentage chance of not working and destroying the item. They're called dark scrolls. So, whenever you apply a dark scroll and destroy an item you have participated in an economic process to remove 2 or more items that can be valued against mesos. Maybe an example will clarify:

Let's say you're a STR shadower and you've just purchased a 99 ATK Gold Double Knife for 20 mil, 3 30% dark scrolls for dagger for atk 5 mil each, and 4 60% dark scrolls for dagger for atk 2.5 mil each. (prices are for illustration only)

Now you scroll the item as follows:

30% pass, 30% fail, 60% pass, 60% pass, 60% fail, 30% destroy

You've just removed 20 + 5 + 5 + 2.5 + 2.5 + 2.5 + 5 = 42.5 million mesos from the economy. (not including the value of any bait scrolls and items)

Just because this process doesn't remove mesos 100% of the time and sometimes adds value doesn't mean it's not a mesos sink.



And finally, you state "buy more 100% overall dex and eventually inflation will stop."

That's just silly. Seriously, I dare you to present a case where this will ever be true.

Lol... how did this thread go from posting screenshots of Lunchboxes to scrolling techniques...?

True, I apoligize for the off topic discussion above. I'd show my lunchbox if I'd been able to play during the event.

How is applying 7B worth of scrolls to an item that you can never sell or trade not a form of mesos sink. The value of that item is no longer recognized in the economy as a whole. I.e. it's been removed from the economy.

@Kaj
Yes I understand that paying for the scrolls give someone else mesos. If the item was tradeable, the the seller would have 7B and the buyer would have a 7B item. That's still 14 B floating around the economy. The item isn't tradeable so there's only 7B floating. Therefore 7B is still removed.

On the other hand, consider what would have happened if Nexon hadn't given this person a lunchbox.

He would set out to create himself a perfect weapon. Let's assume he would spend the same 7B on clean swords and sword scrolls, and blow them up one after the other until he's got the godliest sword he could make. And he's use it himself, not sell it.
Net result: a large number of clean swords "removed from the economy", and all the scrolls used on them, and finally the godly sword which is also not "floating around" because the owner has no reason to sell it.

So is the lunchbox, saving all those swords and scrolls from untimely death, really a gold sink?

On the other hand, consider what would have happened if Nexon hadn't given this person a lunchbox.

He would set out to create himself a perfect weapon. Let's assume he would spend the same 7B on clean swords and sword scrolls, and blow them up one after the other until he's got the godliest sword he could make. And he's use it himself, not sell it.
Net result: a large number of clean swords "removed from the economy", and all the scrolls used on them, and finally the godly sword which is also not "floating around" because the owner has no reason to sell it.

So is the lunchbox, saving all those swords and scrolls from untimely death, really a gold sink?

If Nexon hadn't introduced the LunchBox then you have a point. But they did so it's a moot point.

You could also consider what would happen if Nexon introduced yet another item that trumps the above godly sword. Let's say they introduce a lvl 140 1H sword with a 125 base atk.

Now the player has an incentive to sell it. You see with an untradeable item this can never happen. The lunchbox hero and the godly sword hero would both have incentive to get the new super dee super sword. The lunchbox hero would not have that 7B to use to upgrade to the next one. Those sunk mesos will remain just that.

The mesos that were previously used to murder all those poor swords will now make their way to some other player in the form a godly and tradeable sword.

Anyway, we could go on and on with different scenarios in a thread about lunchboxes. My point was that scrolling an untradeable item is at least a partial mesos sink even if you pay someone else for the scrolls.

How is applying 7B worth of scrolls to an item that you can never sell or trade not a form of mesos sink. The value of that item is no longer recognized in the economy as a whole. I.e. it's been removed from the economy.

Difference between Gold and the items you buy with it. The value of mesos actually drops, because there are the same number of mesos but less items, making the meso to item ratio even higher.


So really Lunchboxes are contributing to inflation, because they take items (white scroll, 1h sword scrolls) out of the economy and leave mesos alone, making items scarcer and worth more.

Mounts, on the other hand, fit the description of gold sink. They take mesos directly out of the economy, and give you something that's untradeable and thus valueless in terms of the item economy.


In terms of intrinsic value, mesos are only worth what you can buy from meso sinks (pot shops, mounts, etc.) Everything else is just item bartering, abstracted a level. You're trading a 4 atk cape for a 12 atk glove, even if 3-4 transactions take place in between. If there are less white scrolls available, you have to trade more to get them to compete with other buyers.

@Kaj
Yes I understand that paying for the scrolls give someone else mesos. If the item was tradeable, the the seller would have 7B and the buyer would have a 7B item. That's still 14 B floating around the economy. The item isn't tradeable so there's only 7B floating. Therefore 7B is still removed.

And you're argument about scrolls is flawed. Nexon makes available to the economy scrolls that have a percentage chance of not working and destroying the item. They're called dark scrolls. So, whenever you apply a dark scroll and destroy an item you have participated in an economic process to remove 2 or more items that can be valued against mesos. Maybe an example will clarify:

Let's say you're a STR shadower and you've just purchased a 99 ATK Gold Double Knife for 20 mil, 3 30% dark scrolls for dagger for atk 5 mil each, and 4 60% dark scrolls for dagger for atk 2.5 mil each. (prices are for illustration only)

Now you scroll the item as follows:

30% pass, 30% fail, 60% pass, 60% pass, 60% fail, 30% destroy

You've just removed 20 + 5 + 5 + 2.5 + 2.5 + 2.5 + 5 = 42.5 million mesos from the economy. (not including the value of any bait scrolls and items)

Just because this process doesn't remove mesos 100% of the time and sometimes adds value doesn't mean it's not a mesos sink.

Oh, you really meant a sort of player intrinsic value. Some of us were talking about pure mesos o.O I do agree that untradeables are a meso sink. But they are a meso sink for the owner only, redeemable by whatever NPCs are willing to pay, if any.

Also, you are right about dark scrolls destroying items will lower the amount of mesos floating around, since the equipment has an NPC value. However, the scrolls themselves only have an NPC value of 1. It's only the players have hold value for these scrolls, and so whatever mesos they've earned, they'll use to buy the scrolls. The only mesos ever really lost are through tax (or if you bought the scrolls from NPCs, then you've lost a lot more).

First off, according to wikipedia a gold sink: (or for our discussion mesos)

"Gold sink is an economic process by which gold, or any item that can be valued against gold, is removed"

source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_sink

How is applying 7B worth of scrolls to an item that you can never sell or trade not a form of mesos sink. The value of that item is no longer recognized in the economy as a whole. I.e. it's been removed from the economy.

@Kaj
Yes I understand that paying for the scrolls give someone else mesos. If the item was tradeable, the the seller would have 7B and the buyer would have a 7B item. That's still 14 B floating around the economy. The item isn't tradeable so there's only 7B floating. Therefore 7B is still removed.

And you're argument about scrolls is flawed. Nexon makes available to the economy scrolls that have a percentage chance of not working and destroying the item. They're called dark scrolls. So, whenever you apply a dark scroll and destroy an item you have participated in an economic process to remove 2 or more items that can be valued against mesos. Maybe an example will clarify:

Let's say you're a STR shadower and you've just purchased a 99 ATK Gold Double Knife for 20 mil, 3 30% dark scrolls for dagger for atk 5 mil each, and 4 60% dark scrolls for dagger for atk 2.5 mil each. (prices are for illustration only)

Now you scroll the item as follows:

30% pass, 30% fail, 60% pass, 60% pass, 60% fail, 30% destroy

You've just removed 20 + 5 + 5 + 2.5 + 2.5 + 2.5 + 5 = 42.5 million mesos from the economy. (not including the value of any bait scrolls and items)

Just because this process doesn't remove mesos 100% of the time and sometimes adds value doesn't mean it's not a mesos sink.

dont misquote wikipedia at me. im still right. if you want a meso sink, you must remove a meso from the economy, not just let it change hands.

applying "any amount of mesos" in scrolls does not remove mesos from the economy, only from your wallet. this removes scrolls from the economy when you use them and serves as a scroll sink. which, like stereo said, helps scroll prices inflate.

in addition, no untradable item is truely removed from the economy because you could sell your account. the fact that this is against the ToS is irrelevant because black and grey markets exist everywhere.

And finally, you state "buy more 100% overall dex and eventually inflation will stop."

That's just silly. Seriously, I dare you to present a case where this will ever be true.

lol. how long have you been playing?
nexon did a very dumb thing a while ago, back when they released nlc.
they released the pots. that was dumb. if you want the cause of inflation today, blame the pots.

yeah, youll say "but those pots are the only pots worth buying"! exactly. because it used to have some semblance of balance. now it doesnt.
nexon decimated the only significant meso sink in the whole game.

lets say i train every day, and use 100 honsters. that costs 280k. if i were to buy reindeer milk like i had to before nlc, i would spend 540k (ugh its been so long i cant remember the price). nexon cut my pot cost in half! now lets extend this to mages... well pre-nlc, mages would buy elixirs. they got up to 8k each. mana bulls are the same 2800. nexon quartered pot costs for mages!

now lets say that across windia, maybe 5000 people train like i do every day, and 1/2 are mages nowadays. you just introduced about 2b in meso into the economy from people saving on pots instead of spending. EVERY DAY. its been like 500 days or so since nlc got released, roughly estimating. who the pineapple has 1t mesos they arent supposed to have? everybody.

did you ever wonder about inflation? if you can understand this, now you know why it happened.

it isnt because nexon introduced a scroll worth 1b. its because you spent less on pots every day. and so did everyone else.

now obviously, this example is the exact opposite of what you asked for. but in comparison, the introduction of a quest that costs 5m, mounts, guild expansions, hmm what else... gem grading! which we dont have yet! they all seem pretty insignificant in comparison because none of them have the staying power (i.e. repeatability) that halving or quartering pot costs has.

the sword scrolls you complain are 1b wouldnt be more than 200m if we didnt have nlc pots. and i can be sure about that price because i can still enter the old mindset of "oh damn, im going to lose money when i train today". the new mindset of "wow, soloing pap is profitable if i npc the pots!" is vaguely satisfying, but i would happily give up a honster if nexon truely cared to deflate the economy long term.

maybe they havent noticed, or they have and are trying to play you and whet your appetite for the next facestomper, chaos scroll, scg, pac, deputy star, or ele wand X. but its a very fine balance to strike, trying to make sure net in = net out, and nlc pots have tipped the scales.

do you comprehend what i am saying? i truly want to get my point across here. because i really DO want you to stop perpetuating the crap i quoted before.

lol. how long have you been playing?
nexon did a very dumb thing a while ago, back when they released nlc.
they released the pots. that was dumb. if you want the cause of inflation today, blame the pots.

yeah, youll say "but those pots are the only pots worth buying"! exactly. because it used to have some semblance of balance. now it doesnt.
nexon decimated the only significant meso sink in the whole game.

nexon cut my pot cost in half! now lets extend this to mages... well pre-nlc, mages would buy elixirs. they got up to 8k each. mana bulls are the same 2800. nexon quartered pot costs for mages!

now lets say that across windia, maybe 5000 people train like i do every day, and 1/2 are mages nowadays. you just introduced about 2b in meso into the economy from people saving on pots instead of spending. EVERY DAY. its been like 500 days or so since nlc got released, roughly estimating. who the pineapple has 1t mesos they arent supposed to have? everybody.

it isnt because nexon introduced a scroll worth 1b. its because you spent less on pots every day. and so did everyone else.

While that is true, without these pots, nobody but the rich would be training with the ultimates. HEck, the only people training would be those that are bent on leveling. Which means the other people will focus on making money, which means more monopolizing of Horntail, Zakum, and selling leech. And finally, which is unfortunate because it'll destroy the certain social structure of present-day MS.



Note though, that they didn't remove the only gold sink, they merely reduced the value of the sink.