2012-02-07, 01:02 AM
nouthyella Wrote:I have to say that you have incorrectly applied "appeal to probability".
The fallacy is fallacious because one says the thing will happen (high probability, or 100% probability), when the actual probability is far lower. The gambler example on your link is a good example of a valid (as in fallacious) application of the fallacy.
The quote on your post, however, stated that it COULD be the case, and that there is a probability of that happening. The quote did not mention anything about the probability being high, or that he was saying that the vss was legitly made.
In fact, I have personally seen a wwg being scrolled to 5 pass with 10% in 2005-era GMS (pre MSEA). The probability is low (0.001%), but it happened. You cannot deny that it is infact possible for 27att vss to be scrolled with a nonzero probability. By definition, something with nonzero probability could happen, so there is nothing fallacious about that post you quoted. I personally believe that these shoes were hacked, but you cannot deny the probability that they could have been legitly created.
Seriously dude? I mean like I'm asking seriously are you like, trying to pull this off? It's a lot easier to scroll a wwg with 10%'s if there are 10,000 scrolls in circulation. I mean what you people don't get is the limited supply makes it completely improbable, there shouldn't be anymore than what? 80 shoe attack scrolls? But people sell them by the hundreds. If they were never duped you'd never see a perfect 27 attack shoe, ever. Statistically out of the very limited supply only a dozen would have passed and that's extremely optimistic.