2012-02-07, 12:52 AM
nouthyella Wrote:I have to say that you have incorrectly applied "appeal to probability".
The fallacy is fallacious because one says the thing will happen (high probability, or 100% probability), when the actual probability is far lower. The gambler example on your link is a good example of a valid (as in fallacious) application of the fallacy.
The quote on your post, however, stated that it COULD be the case, and that there is a probability of that happening. The quote did not mention anything about the probability being high, or that he was saying that the vss was legitly made.
In fact, I have personally seen a wwg being scrolled to 5 pass with 10% in 2005-era GMS (pre MSEA). The probability is low (0.001%), but it happened. You cannot deny that it is infact possible for 27att vss to be scrolled with a nonzero probability. By definition, something with nonzero probability could happen, so there is nothing fallacious about that post you quoted. I personally believe that these shoes were hacked, but you cannot deny the probability that they could have been legitly created.
Here we have demonstrated a nice little logical fallacy.
Basically "I can make up a ridiculous scenario that would make X happen that could never actually happen, therefore my idea is valid."
I therefore contend that you are actually the reincarnated spirit of Jackie Chan and have come to save the Martians from the menace known as Morgan Freeman.

