2012-01-01, 10:39 PM
Could you try plotting it against a binomial distribution with n = 10, p = 0.55, minus 5 from the outcome? (so possible values range from -5 to +5) Seems like the most probable distribution to me given the results you've shown so far.
Actually, it would be better to do a best-fit for the 'p' value. 0.6 is just what I eyeballed from the plot.
The set of probabilities with n=10, p=0.55 is:
[1] 0.0003405063 0.0041617435 0.0228895894 0.0746031063 0.1595677552
[6] 0.2340327076 0.2383666466 0.1664782929 0.0763025509 0.0207241496
[11] 0.0025329516
That's -5, -4, -3, -2, -1, 0, +1, +2, +3, +4, +5.
Actually, looking at it the tails are much too heavy. Multiplying for 248 tests gives 0.1, 1, 6, 19, 40, 58, 59, 41, 19, 5, 1 as the numbers of each, approximately.
Actually, it would be better to do a best-fit for the 'p' value. 0.6 is just what I eyeballed from the plot.
The set of probabilities with n=10, p=0.55 is:
[1] 0.0003405063 0.0041617435 0.0228895894 0.0746031063 0.1595677552
[6] 0.2340327076 0.2383666466 0.1664782929 0.0763025509 0.0207241496
[11] 0.0025329516
That's -5, -4, -3, -2, -1, 0, +1, +2, +3, +4, +5.
Actually, looking at it the tails are much too heavy. Multiplying for 248 tests gives 0.1, 1, 6, 19, 40, 58, 59, 41, 19, 5, 1 as the numbers of each, approximately.