2011-11-07, 04:11 PM
nRxUs Wrote:What's the question? Whether you should play?
If that's the question then of course not, you have to take into account permutations and make a binomial distribution which shows that the chances of you losing are over .9.
Similar to that question of if you have at least 30 people in the room there is a huge chance that at least two of them share the same birthday. Permutations win.
Chance of losing is NOT over .9 actually. Also remember, the pay out is IMPORTANT. If you had a 90/10 chance (only 10% chance of winning)... but the pay out was higher than 10:1 it'd be worth playing... even with the high chance of losing.
The questions are as follows:
is it worth it to play at a 1:1 payout? You pretty much answered this part. (aka, no)
is it worth it to play at a 5:1 payout? This one's a bit trickier. You'll have to calculate the EXACT percentages to see if 5:1 is a good payout or not.