Show me your lunchbox!

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They way it needs to be approached is somewhere in between both arguments in my opinion. Yes each scroll only has a 30% chance to work. If you used 1000 scrolls, about 300 would work and the other 700 would fail.

But if you recorded each time you used a scroll you will obviously find that it is a random assortment of passing and failing, it's extremely rare to find many many passes in a row, and it's also rare to see a whole bunch fails in a row, they are randomly distributed. Since whether the scroll passes or not is indeed randomly assorted, you can assume that the more fails you get in a row, the sooner you will get one to pass.

But either way it's not worth wasting money baiting.

Let me try to explain it again.

You people are saying, "what's the probability of 21 fails in a row"?
well, it's 0.7 ^ 21 = 0.000558
Very rare, as you claimed.

But what's the probability of 20 fails in a row and then success?
it's (0.7 ^ 20 )* 0.3 = 0.000239
Less than half!
So the sequence of 21 fails is actually twice as likely as the sequence of 20 fails and then success.

Meaning: even if you failed 20 30% scrolls in a row, you're still twice as likely to fail the next one than to land it.