Show me your lunchbox!

Since whether the scroll passes or not is indeed randomly assorted, you can assume that the more fails you get in a row, the sooner you will get one to pass.

Actually it's the opposite, the more fails you get in the row the longer it is before one passes.:f6:




Here's my 60% scrolling over 150 scrolls, recorded in order.

^^v^^ ^^^^^ ^v^v^ v^^^v ^^^v^ ^^^^^ ^v^^^ ^v^^^ ^^^^^ v^^v^ ^v^^v v^^^v vv^v^ vv^^^ ^^^^^ vv^^^ ^v^^^ vvvv^ ^v^^^ vv^^^ v^v^v ^^^^^ v^^vv ^^^^v v^^^^ ^^^^^ ^^^v^ ^^v^v ^v^^v ^^vv^
71% worked 29% failed - .6% err

Of the 43 failures, 12 were followed by another failure (72% worked 28% failed - 2.5% err). Of the 12 times 2 failed in a row, 3 were followed by another failure (75% work 25% failed - 8% err). Of the 3 times 3 failed in a row, 1 was followed by another failure (66% worked 33% failed - 33% err).

The only thing you can say with confidence is that I have an unusually high chance of 60%s working. The number that have failed stayed consistently at 30% no matter how many previously worked.