Show me your lunchbox!

if you use 100 30% scrolls, you will notice that about 30 of them will work 35 of them will fail and 35 of them will blow things up. but you cant base a pattern to scrolling because its random each time and not gonna form a pattern.

i treat scrolling as a guessing game. something like "now that i failed 10 30%, which was a 3% of happening, will the next one hit? because failing the next one in a row is a 2% of happening". of course the next one still has a 30% chance of landing.

So what have you gained by wasting hundreds of 30% scrolls until you get 20 fails in a row?
You know the next one only has a 30% chance of succeeding, same as if it were your first 30% scroll ever.
It only gives you the right to whine "Can you believe it? I had 21 30% scrolls fail on me in a row!" to your buddies. Which is what is most likely (70%) to happen.