Show me your lunchbox!

something like "now that i failed 10 30%, which was a 3% of happening, will the next one hit? because failing the next one in a row is a 2% of happening".

There's only a 2% chance of that happening before you used any. (11 in your inventory, 2% of the time they'll all fail)


Once you resolve 10 of them, you're already in a very small set of outcomes. That is, 10 fail 1 works, or 11 fail. They have 30% and 70% chance of happening.