2008-10-30, 12:05 AM
Looking at it individually, yes it will always be 50% (coin), or 30/70%. But if you look at it as a whole.
Look at the chances of failing 10 30%s in a row.
(0.70)^10 ~ 0.028 -> about 3/100
failing 20 30% in a row
(0.70)^20 ~ 0.000797 -> about 8/10,000
It's difficult to fail 20 30%s in a row; it was already hard to fail 10 30%s in a row. the thing with baiting is that the goal is not to get scrolls to land, its getting scrolls to fail. the more that fails, the more likely it is for the next one to work. because as a whole, failing 7 in a row is harder than failing 6 in a row. of course, individually, they will always have the same probability.
and this is a gambler's fallacy in thinking that the more he loses, the more likely he will win the next round. but for gamblers, its a fallacy because he will lose more than he can win. for maple, you only need the win. the rest of the fails were just trash/baits.
anyway, this works for me like i previously mentioned. scrolling is a game of gambling and guess.
Look at the chances of failing 10 30%s in a row.
(0.70)^10 ~ 0.028 -> about 3/100
failing 20 30% in a row
(0.70)^20 ~ 0.000797 -> about 8/10,000
It's difficult to fail 20 30%s in a row; it was already hard to fail 10 30%s in a row. the thing with baiting is that the goal is not to get scrolls to land, its getting scrolls to fail. the more that fails, the more likely it is for the next one to work. because as a whole, failing 7 in a row is harder than failing 6 in a row. of course, individually, they will always have the same probability.
and this is a gambler's fallacy in thinking that the more he loses, the more likely he will win the next round. but for gamblers, its a fallacy because he will lose more than he can win. for maple, you only need the win. the rest of the fails were just trash/baits.
anyway, this works for me like i previously mentioned. scrolling is a game of gambling and guess.