Show me your lunchbox!

The way I see it is, how likely is it that you can fail 20 30% scrolls in a row? Not just failfailfailfailworkfailfail, but failfailfailfailfailfail. If you can fail 20 30% in a row, its likely that the 21th will hit. You might not have 20 30% 1h scrolls but that's why they call it baiting eh. It works well for my scrolling at least.

It's cheaper but riskier, obviously. And the supply of 30% 1h sword is much higher than 10% 1h gm scrolls. But if people wanna eliminate that risk by paying 7+ bil, it's their choice.

Flip a coin 100 times. It lands heads 100 times
How likely is THE NEXT flip to be tails?
50%
Always.
Always always always.
The Probability for flipping 101 out of 101 Heads is not.
But EACH of those 101 flips is 50%
...
So really cumulative stats are only useful for scrolling a SET- like what is the likely hood of landing 4 30s on my Sauna!