[1.2.378] Magicians in Jump

For the case of non-100% accuracy, even in the long-run argument, at the limit of monster death (i.e. you're killing a boss, both types of attacks do the same amount of damage over a long period of time until you're nearly going to kill it), multi-hit still wins.

Let's consider the case where the monster has so little HP just 1 hit from either a single-shot attack or 1 of the multi-shot attack will kill it. Let's say you're accuracy is 50%, for the sake of convenience. For every (full) shot you miss, you need another shot. So what I'm going to do here is to find how many extra shots I need just to kill that monster.

If miss, then score 1. If hit, then score 0.


Multi-hit (4-hit, since the people here have been talking about CL):

Probability that I miss on all 4 trials in a hit = 0.5^4 = 0.0625
Expected score = 0.0625*1 = 0.0625


Single-hit

Probability that I miss = 0.5
Expected score = 0.5*1 = 0.5


What this means is that at the limit of monster HP, a multi-hit attack will have a lower chance of not killing the monster (obviously), which means that the expected number of attacks needed to kill the monster gets very very low. I can pull off the same calculation for the subsequent misses, and multi-hit attack will still win. For every 100 monsters I kill, only 6.25 needs an extra shot from the multi-hit skill, and 50 needs an extra shot from the single-hit.

The point about this argument is - time is valuable. Excess damage is wasted.

If you feel that KB is important... sorry it's now a multi-hit skill. Given the current potential system, hitting the KB mark isn't very hard... If KB is what you want, take heart that at least CL stuns now. If you're an F/P... err... nothing to say. I believe both sides know the pros and cons of both types, so stop trying to squash each other.

Again, chill. Can't we be civilised people here?

Hadriel