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Also may be possible that

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Madoka actually gets more and more powerful with each recursion. First time, she died after the battle. Second time she was hurt, but just became a witch after. Third time she and Homura fight together and both get mortally wounded. Fourth time Madoka is able to take on Waluigi all by herself, and with just one blow as well. It's possible that she's more and more powerful, but of course we don't have enough information to really see if she's getting stronger or not. We never actually see the fights, nor do we see what becomes of Madoka after the fourth loop, aside from obviously becoming a witch. We know she took it out in one shot, but we don't know how. She probably used one of those FINAL BUSTER moves like Kyouko and drained her soul gem.


As for the thoughts on Kyubey, I'd say it's possible that there's just a bunch of contractors. Kyubey knew he didn't make a contract with her, but perhaps someone else did. He did find her suspicious in some way though. In our current loop, we saw that he even formulated a plan against her from the very start. If you notice, when she kills the first Kyubey in the hallway, a second one noisily appears behind her, and just waits for her to acknowledge he's there before running so that Madoka can see Homura as someone bullying an innocent creature and distrust her.

Kyubey never tells us his thoughts really. It would seem he knew something was up with Homura, but didn't think it'd be too important to look into. At the end of the fourth loop when he's all like "lol not my problem to deal with, everything's cool on my end" he doesn't really put the pieces together until Homura Time Roulette's the hell out of there.

He probably didn't try getting energy from her in this time line because he was planning all along to use Madoka anyway. He probably knew Homura would never be able to handle it on her own, so just let things progress as normal.

Madoka

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Awesome idea on Madoka getting stronger in each iteration. That was a good catch that I missed. One of the things I'm curious about now is whether Kyouko turned into a witch or not. I'm assuming she didn't because the explosion would have destroyed her soul gem before it could have turned into a grief seed.

The Kyuubey manipulation is also neat. Kyuubey is still hard to really peg down for me at the moment. I am under the impression that he's more apathetic then manipulative master-mind.

I think using Homura to get energy from girls and then going back to time would give him an endless quota assuming that Homura's time back ability does not affect the energy he obtains or that his universe is independent of Homura's ability.

Some things that are really interesting to think about is the fact that actual real life weapons (guns, explosives) can actually defeat witches which appear to be astral / unreal in nature. This breach is really interesting when considering the boundaries between real life and a witch's domain.

I just noticed this btw. Sayaka tells Homura that she feels unsafe with her explosives possibly catching her. If you look at the cut scene soon after with Oktavia, you see that she summons wheels and squashes her own familiar. SAYAKA YOU peach. Also interesting to note is Sayaka telling off Homura instead of seeking a rotational system. If you look at them as a party, it could be Madoka-Mami-Homura with Sayaka on standby or Madoka-Mami-Sayaka with Homura on standby. But the fact that Sayaka just wants to kind of kick out Homura leads me to believe that Sayaka is just doomed to be a witch every damn time due to her overbearing self-righteousness. I really do believe that she turns into a witch because of that character flaw. Not because of her having weak powers compared to Mami or Homura. (Persona 4 spoiler)

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(miss Adachi so badly.)