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Everything you need to know about heroes, and more
#6
Perhaps a paladin with its 94% mastery will reduce the standard deviation of crit and help to answer alot of problems.

Anyway, I did some thinking and wanted to do some stuffs with my excel but i didn't know how to play with binomial distribution function in it based on an earlier information.

959880 x x 1.38 / (1.3 x 1.08) = 943471 (compared to 942096)


Now supposed we have a step function with 25 575 steps.
The probability of falling into the last step is 1/25 575 = 0.00003910.
This means that the probability of your dmg showing the maxed dmg as in 943471 is 0.00003910.

Now 943471 - 942096 = 1375
25575 - 1375 = 24200
24200/25575 = 0.9463

Now P( of doing >= 942096 uncrit dmg ) = 1375/25 575 = 0.05376

Supposed in a zakum run where he gets to spam 6000 intrepid slash.

What is the probability of at least 1 intrepid slash hitting at least 942096 ?

probability of at least 1 intrepid slash hitting at least 942096 = 1 - (1 - 0.05376)^6000= 1- (0.94236)^6000
= 1 ( or close to 1)

What about the exact probability of getting that elusive 943471 in 6000 slashes?

= 1 - ( 1 - 0.00003910)^6000 = 0.21

Conclusion:

The observed data seems to fit the theoretical data with a marin error of 6.4%?
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Everything you need to know about heroes, and more - by sw2009 - 2011-02-07, 03:24 AM

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