Scroll probability formula

Occam's Razor:
-Scrolls take information from past scrollings made by the user in X ammount of time in order to average out to about Y% probability to work, demanding the server to remember past events.
-Scrolls work Y% of the time.

:f6:
If there's a "rememberance of past events" means there's a collective set of data; which would allow statistical calcuation to work in:
a) studying the pattern
b) probability prediction of outcome by "averaging" out used scrolls in the past.
Both of which will allow 'an expected future value of success', no?
I've used a simulation program, called 'Crystal Ball" (by ORACLE), which would allow one to predict future values. (from either independent or dependent collective set of data - as long as there's data and formulas, u're set to get it). Used it in my CAD-decision making class in order to predict future pattern from given statistical set data and formula. Of course, it's not 100% accurate.