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Scroll probability formula
#7
Fumni Wrote:I hope you guys don't mind me adding to this and bumping this topic.

Scroll probability can be easily calculated using binomial distribution, in particular, the probability mass formula "[Image: 68d0ba6ef5dfb8c654702c3290128b10.png]." The first part (n,k) or n chooses k, is the binomial coefficient, which can be calculated with the formula "[Image: a12375b9f5661262cf951dc829a33262.png]".

Using Excel, I made some basic chart graphics to visualize the probability mass function. The following scenarios are for an overall with 10 slots, using 10%, 30%, 50%, 60% and 70% scrolls.

Success rate (10%)

number of successes percentage rate
0 34.87%
1 38.74%
2 19.37%
3 5.74%
4 1.12%
5 0.15%
6 0.01%
7 0.00%
8 0.00%
9 0.00%
10 0.00%

 Spoiler

Success rate (30%)

number of successes percentage rate
0 2.82%
1 12.11%
2 23.35%
3 26.68%
4 20.01%
5 10.29%
6 3.68%
7 0.90%
8 0.14%
9 0.01%
10 0.00%

 Spoiler

Success rate (50%)

number of successes percentage rate
0 0.10%
1 0.98%
2 4.39%
3 11.72%
4 20.51%
5 24.61%
6 20.51%
7 11.72%
8 4.39%
9 0.98%
10 0.10%

 Spoiler


Success rate (60%)

number of successes percentage rate
0 0.01%
1 0.16%
2 1.06%
3 4.25%
4 11.15%
5 20.07%
6 25.08%
7 21.50%
8 12.09%
9 4.03%
10 0.60%

 Spoiler


Success rate (70%)

number of successes percentage rate
0 0.00%
1 0.01%
2 0.14%
3 0.90%
4 3.68%
5 10.29%
6 20.01%
7 26.68%
8 23.35%
9 12.11%
10 2.82%

 Spoiler

Point out any errors, if you see any.

The formula you posted is esentially a more statistic-savvy version of what I came up with. But still. looks good.
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Messages In This Thread
Scroll probability formula - by Kabanaw - 2010-03-24, 04:03 PM
Scroll probability formula - by Kortestanov - 2010-04-12, 02:12 PM
Scroll probability formula - by Kabanaw - 2010-04-12, 02:59 PM
Scroll probability formula - by Johnnywup - 2010-04-13, 01:15 AM
Scroll probability formula - by Sn1perJohnE - 2010-04-13, 02:00 AM
Scroll probability formula - by Fumni - 2011-02-05, 01:13 AM
Scroll probability formula - by Kabanaw - 2011-02-05, 01:16 AM
Scroll probability formula - by Fumni - 2011-02-05, 01:18 AM
Scroll probability formula - by Kabanaw - 2011-02-05, 01:21 AM
Scroll probability formula - by Fumni - 2011-02-05, 01:29 AM
Scroll probability formula - by Stereo - 2011-02-05, 02:06 AM
Scroll probability formula - by hadriel - 2011-02-05, 04:01 AM
Scroll probability formula - by Kaasoljoyyx - 2011-02-05, 04:39 AM
Scroll probability formula - by Fumni - 2011-02-05, 12:05 PM
Scroll probability formula - by Shidoshi - 2011-02-05, 12:08 PM
Scroll probability formula - by Kaasoljoyyx - 2011-02-05, 02:05 PM
Scroll probability formula - by vx-2 - 2011-02-06, 03:10 PM
Scroll probability formula - by Shidoshi - 2011-02-06, 03:14 PM
Scroll probability formula - by vx-2 - 2011-02-06, 03:28 PM
Scroll probability formula - by Shidoshi - 2011-02-06, 03:41 PM
Scroll probability formula - by Kaasoljoyyx - 2011-02-06, 04:48 PM
Scroll probability formula - by vx-2 - 2011-02-06, 08:03 PM
Scroll probability formula - by hadriel - 2011-02-07, 04:44 AM
Scroll probability formula - by Shidoshi - 2011-02-07, 08:05 AM
Scroll probability formula - by vx-2 - 2011-02-07, 11:26 AM
Scroll probability formula - by Shidoshi - 2011-02-07, 01:02 PM
Scroll probability formula - by StringStrider - 2011-02-08, 09:58 PM
Scroll probability formula - by Fumni - 2011-02-08, 10:39 PM
Scroll probability formula - by vx-2 - 2011-02-09, 12:50 AM
Scroll probability formula - by Kaasoljoyyx - 2011-02-09, 02:20 AM
Scroll probability formula - by Fumni - 2011-02-10, 12:23 AM
Scroll probability formula - by Kaasoljoyyx - 2011-02-10, 02:19 AM

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