2011-01-26, 07:52 PM
modular Wrote:the probability of this occurence is
.78 * .4 * .22 * .78 * .6 * 1 * 1
in words, this is:
p(1orbIS) * p(FA) * p(2orbFA) * p(1orbIS) * p(noFA) * p(1 or 2orbIS) * p(FA or noFA)
each time you brandish, you need to say in your calculation whether or not you get 2 orbs, whether or not FA activates and if it does, how many orbs it gives. when you reach a scenario where you must attack again, but are guaranteed to only be able to charge 1 orb, the probability of you maxing your orbs on that attack is 100% (thats where the 1s come from). so basically, this is the way to show that you have to truncate the number of orbs you can have.
that's one reason to keep track of how many attacks you need for each combination or lump the probabilities together into a table like joe's.
hope this helps..
This helps a LOT! This is what my hunch was. I've just been sooo clustered writing out (by hand) all 59 combinations of orb charging with level 1 ACA that my mind has started to implode.
I really should learn advanced excel stuff... Sum and basic math just wont cut it with the crap I'm doing.
Excel for dummies plz
