MM + Coma Macro could outdamage Brandish. (Math inside)

Oh. I see what you did now. Your probabilities only consider the scenario of starting with 0 Combo Orbs. They don't factor in the chance that at any given time, you could have anywhere between 0 and 5 orbs.

i.e. probability of 1 orb = (probability of Finisher + Final Attack) * (probability of no double charge) + (probability of Finisher + no Final Attack) * (probability of no double charge)
P(1) = P(F) * 0.6 * 0.78 + P(0) * 0.78

Rather than P(1) = 0.78 * 0.6, probability of no double charge and no Final Attack.

Also, what formula are you using to get Coma's damage? I was under the impression it was (0.25 + 0.3*orbs)*Coma = 700% with level 1 ACA.

Here is where I got my Coma damages (#230 by Stereo)

You will NEVER have 5 orbs.
There are only 3 skills involved in the equation.
MM (Can trigger 2 orbs, Can't trigger FA)
Coma (Consumes orbs, Can trigger FA)
FA (Can trigger 2 orbs, Can't trigger FA)

This means the most orbs you'll ever have EXCLUSIVELY using this macro is 4.

The reason I rearranged the numbers as such is because if A + B + C = D then C + A + B = D. I rearraged with FA first because Coma will leave you with 0 orbs. If I had Coma in the middle I'd have a 2 orb proc chance, a reset (Coma uses up the orbs), and then a 2 orb proc chance. I just put the proc chances before the reset for easier math.

Think of this macro more like an average over time. The first coma of the spam will always have 1-2 orbs, after that, granted it activated FA, this means we can have anywhere from 1-4 orbs.