2011-01-25, 06:26 PM
Oh. I see what you did now. Your probabilities only consider the scenario of starting with 0 Combo Orbs. They don't factor in the chance that at any given time, you could have anywhere between 0 and 5 orbs.
i.e. probability of 1 orb = (probability of Finisher + Final Attack) * (probability of no double charge) + (probability of Finisher + no Final Attack) * (probability of no double charge)
P(1) = P(F) * 0.6 * 0.78 + P(0) * 0.78
Rather than P(1) = 0.78 * 0.6, probability of no double charge and no Final Attack.
Also, what formula are you using to get Coma's damage? I was under the impression it was (0.25 + 0.3*orbs)*Coma = 700% with level 1 ACA.
i.e. probability of 1 orb = (probability of Finisher + Final Attack) * (probability of no double charge) + (probability of Finisher + no Final Attack) * (probability of no double charge)
P(1) = P(F) * 0.6 * 0.78 + P(0) * 0.78
Rather than P(1) = 0.78 * 0.6, probability of no double charge and no Final Attack.
Also, what formula are you using to get Coma's damage? I was under the impression it was (0.25 + 0.3*orbs)*Coma = 700% with level 1 ACA.