Any sighting of the elusive Big Cat?

I've started to buddy everyone who's looking for Jaira as well.

My Wild Hunter's name is AshesofJaira on Bera if you'd like to add me to that list. I changed the formatting of the reports a little bit to make it easier to find the most recent ones without scrolling down a page.

 Spoiler

Information from the Map.wz file:

 Spoiler

The WZ files show almost no information to help us. There is one map, 931000500 (iirc), which lists all the mobs in the map, but doesn't list Jaira (this could also be why Jaira doesn't have a specified spawn location, there isn't a specified spawn location in the WZ file map data). All the other maps link to this map (as in, they are copies of this map), and no mob information is given. The only difference between the mobs listed in the map is that one of the tan/brown jaguars (I forget whether it's top left or top right, but I don't think it makes a difference) has a mobTime of 0, the rest of the jaguars have a mobTime of 1. I'm not sure what mobTime does, but I thought it might be worth pointing out. And no, killing this tan/brown jaguar does not spawn Jaira.

There are a total of ten maps. 00, 09, 08, 07, 06, 05, 04, 03, 02, 01. They go in order as listed. If someone is in the first map (00), and no one is in the second map (09), you will be placed in the second map. If there is one and only one person in every map, you will be placed in the first map, and it cycles like this. Once you are in a map, you can change channels, and you will still be in that map.

Information from the Mob.wz file: (Jaira in general)

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Jaira takes 5 damage per hit, constant, similar to all jaguars except the normal black ones. Jaira cannot be KB'd, and he has 300 health, compared to a normal jaguar's 125. For what it's worth, a normal black jaguar takes 25 damage per hit, constant. The most valuable piece of information gained here is that Jaira, once spawned, will disappear after 15 minutes.

Even if you are currently riding a jaguar when you catch another one (Jaira included), you will automatically switch to the jaguar you just caught, so don't be afraid of riding a jaguar while trying to catch Jaira.

Jaira is similar to an area boss in that after he spawns, the first player to enter that map will receive a blue message saying "Jaira has appeared from between the boulders". That does not mean that this text will always appear, people might receive the text and leave, or be afk in the map with a Jaira present. Do not channel surf waiting for the text.

Sighting reports/times: (All times given in PST)
Red = unsure, questionable, not direct information
Purple = El Nido. The reported times are different than other servers.
(?) = Information is approximate.

12/20/2010 - 12/26/2010

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12/20 or 12/21
- Unknown time and date, but a pic was provided.

12/21
- estimated 8am - 11am pst (probably wrong), top-right
- 12:49 (no time zone) Via metadata, we found when the screenshot was taken

12/22
- No reports

12/23
- 12:23am by yellowfrog0
- 12:20am (around) - second-hand source
- 12:0xam by Extremely Neutral
- 12:xxam - second-hand source (owner was SweettSauce)

12/24
- 12am - (?) second-hand source (NoJobNoRules)

12/25
- 12:00-12:30pm (?) by Dragonfalse
- 1pm (?) by Oaysis
- 4:00-5:00pm (?) - second-hand source on El Nido (should it matter)

12/26
- 12:45pm - second-hand source

12/27/2010 - 1/2/2011

 Spoiler

12/27
- No reports

12/28
- 12:15am by me (AwakePlace), only the blue text appeared, I suspect Jaira despawned as I searched the whole map and couldn't find him
- 12:20am by MiSSHaku, lower-left
- 12:27am by steveg89, lower-right?
- 12:35am by MiSSHaku, lower-left again
- 12:52am by Locked (had it stolen from him D
- 1:01am by IKnowUWonder2
- 5:30am by Ray (El Nido, which is seeming to matter)
- 5:3xam by Ray (he found two)

12/29
- No reports

12/30
- 12:35pm by jhkplaya888
- 1:08pm by LittleKimora
- 1:25pm by Laze44
- 1:55pm by Netto

12/31
- No reports

1/1
- 12:25pm by Dragonfalse

1/2
- 12:10am Broa by Stratales
- 12:25am room 00 Scania (second-hand via Worthyness)
- 12:33am room 00 Scania by Spongyy
- 12:35am room 00 Bera (second-hand via MzMononoke who told me in-game, and Chrno who backed it up)
- 12:40am Bera (second-hand via Chrno)
- 12:45am Bera (second-hand via Chrno)
- 12:51am room 00 Broa by Starrie
- 12:5xam room 00 Broa by Starrie (caught by xPandaay)
- 12:5xam room 00 Broa by Starrie (caught by FlyingEquus)
- 12:58am room 00 Mardia by LittleKimora (second-hand)
- 12:5xam room 00 Mardia by LittleKimora (second-hand, found by same person)
- 1:00am (?) (second-hand via street)

1/3/2011 - 1/9/2011

I've looked over the list, and I can't find any explainable patterns without removing reports. Either we don't have enough data yet, I just can't find a working pattern, or the chance of Jaira spawning is indeterminable. The best guess I can make is that on 1/6 or 1/7 at 12:00am to 1:30am PST, we'll get another rush of sightings. Possibly after 12:00pm PST on 1/4 or 1/5, though there seems to be less reports for the afternoon times.