Expected Hits/Kill [mathy thread]

I found my mistake. The correct recurrence is e(n) = e(n-1) + 1/size * (e(n-a) - e(n-b-1)). Yay off by one errors!

Not a noticeable difference with large numbers in the thousands, but significant for single digits.

Now I'm getting:

nc(2) = 1.5
c(2) = 1
e(2) = 1.25

nc(3) = 2.125
c(3) = 1.333
e(3) = 1.7291666

nc(4) = 2.48958333
c(4) = 1.75
e(4) = 2.119791666

Makes more sense. Edited OP to reflect the change.