2010-10-20, 06:40 PM
Dusk Wrote:I don't think it really matters if they can prove themselves innocent or not. What we need is a successful lynch today. Let's take a look at the score here. There are probably 5 mafia members total, and maybe 1 neutral. Two mafia members are dead, leaving 3.
If me (Dusk), MasPan, Mute, CJ, and Jon are all townies, then at least 3 out of 4 of the remaining must be mafia, and the score is either 5:3:1 or 6:3. BTA, Mira, and Mephisto cannot all be telling the truth. Our odds of picking one of them and getting a mafia member are pretty good. If we do pick incorrectly and get a townie, and the mafia gets a successful night kill, we'll be at 3:3:1, a mafia win, or a 4:3 where we almost certainly know the identity of every mafia member.
e.g. We lynch Mira today and she turns out to be a townie. One of us dies at night. In that case, Kurtle, BTA, and Mephisto are pretty much confirmed mafia. As long as the town members actually participate, night actions don't pineapple things up, and there's no neutral, it's a town win. That's a lot of assumptions, though, so we need a succesful lynch.
I'm not advocating any decision here, just laying out my thinking.
[color="#cc8899"]I've been thinking along the same lines. Kurtle appears to be inactive today, and we cannot afford a nonvoter. If nothing else, he's the lowest risk lynch
If Mephisto is a neutral, he's got just as much interest in killing mafia as he does townie. He promised us a mafia kill tonight - if he does not deliver, he is the obvious lynch tomorrow.[/COLOR].