2010-10-02, 10:05 PM
o.O A lot went down since I voted. I tried to break down the possible scenarios that are currently playing in my mind at the moment.
So we have Kurtle = Mafian = Jon being a Townie = Either Shikage, Russt, Chaotic CJ, or KajitiSouls have fairly good odds of being a mafian trying to prevent Kurtle from being found out
Or
We have Kurtle = Townie = Jon being a Townie = Either Shikage, Russt, ChaoticCJ, or KaijitSouls could fairly likely be mafians attempting to lynch a town member stupid enough to vote for the confirmed townie, or as he put it later on, his gambit to lure out mafians
Or
We have Kurtle = Townie = Jon being a Mafian = Shikage, Russt, ChaoticCJ, and KajitiSouls are most likely townies, with a possibility of hiding a mafian amongst them to protect themselves while they get"confirmed" as townies after a rather poor choice by one of their allies, a neutral voting remains possible in this scenario as well
And
I tried coming up with a Kurtle = Mafian and Jon = Mafian argument, but I just couldn't believe it as a possibility without assuming that Jon was a horrible horrible mafian player. And even then, I have trouble buying it. So I'd say the other scenarios are more likely. Not that this one is impossible, I just can't see it being something willing undertaken as a move for the mafia. I mean, if that were the case, they've already lost TK while conferring a townie role on Kurtle, and Corn to that wonderful bomb explosion, so to have Jon essentially suicide at this point would serve no purpose I can think of. I suppose it's possible that they wanted to make sure Dark's vote didn't start making everyone else suspicious of Kurtle, but even then, there are better ways to do that then drawing other votes. So while it's a possibility, I'd have to say it's a slim one. I did want to mention it though, as I try to be logical about everything I do. Of course if we do lynch Jon and he does turn out to be a mafian, then this scenario gains more credibility, but I still find it difficult to credit currently.
Someone may want to check my logic on these though, as I've had to rewrite this after my computer ate my previous response and this one was a pretty quick run through with the gist of what I could remember.
Edit: As for my vote, I still believe ChaoticCJ to be a more likely mafian/neutral than most of the other people. I am willing to change it to another person but only if it'd make a difference in the way things turn out. As is, Jon is going to be lynched, and unless two other people vote for ChaoticCJ, or several of us change our votes to KajitiSouls, I don't think things will change from that scenario.
So we have Kurtle = Mafian = Jon being a Townie = Either Shikage, Russt, Chaotic CJ, or KajitiSouls have fairly good odds of being a mafian trying to prevent Kurtle from being found out
Or
We have Kurtle = Townie = Jon being a Townie = Either Shikage, Russt, ChaoticCJ, or KaijitSouls could fairly likely be mafians attempting to lynch a town member stupid enough to vote for the confirmed townie, or as he put it later on, his gambit to lure out mafians
Or
We have Kurtle = Townie = Jon being a Mafian = Shikage, Russt, ChaoticCJ, and KajitiSouls are most likely townies, with a possibility of hiding a mafian amongst them to protect themselves while they get"confirmed" as townies after a rather poor choice by one of their allies, a neutral voting remains possible in this scenario as well
And
I tried coming up with a Kurtle = Mafian and Jon = Mafian argument, but I just couldn't believe it as a possibility without assuming that Jon was a horrible horrible mafian player. And even then, I have trouble buying it. So I'd say the other scenarios are more likely. Not that this one is impossible, I just can't see it being something willing undertaken as a move for the mafia. I mean, if that were the case, they've already lost TK while conferring a townie role on Kurtle, and Corn to that wonderful bomb explosion, so to have Jon essentially suicide at this point would serve no purpose I can think of. I suppose it's possible that they wanted to make sure Dark's vote didn't start making everyone else suspicious of Kurtle, but even then, there are better ways to do that then drawing other votes. So while it's a possibility, I'd have to say it's a slim one. I did want to mention it though, as I try to be logical about everything I do. Of course if we do lynch Jon and he does turn out to be a mafian, then this scenario gains more credibility, but I still find it difficult to credit currently.
Someone may want to check my logic on these though, as I've had to rewrite this after my computer ate my previous response and this one was a pretty quick run through with the gist of what I could remember.
Edit: As for my vote, I still believe ChaoticCJ to be a more likely mafian/neutral than most of the other people. I am willing to change it to another person but only if it'd make a difference in the way things turn out. As is, Jon is going to be lynched, and unless two other people vote for ChaoticCJ, or several of us change our votes to KajitiSouls, I don't think things will change from that scenario.