2010-09-26, 06:23 PM
Is it advantageous to lynch today?
On the one hand, lynching is the only way a ninja is going to die (barring any vigilante roles), so we should get to it; and we do only need to be right approximately half the time in order to win.
On the other hand, we only have a 1/4 chance at a correct random lynch at the current moment, and we may gain more information later.
Remember, an even number of players during the day is favorable to the mafia. Right now there's an odd number, which is favorable to us, so we should keep that advantage with a lynch.
On the one hand, lynching is the only way a ninja is going to die (barring any vigilante roles), so we should get to it; and we do only need to be right approximately half the time in order to win.
On the other hand, we only have a 1/4 chance at a correct random lynch at the current moment, and we may gain more information later.
Remember, an even number of players during the day is favorable to the mafia. Right now there's an odd number, which is favorable to us, so we should keep that advantage with a lynch.