upgrading stirgeman pants

To explain further:

Basically, it works like this. There's the current tier that your item is, and a distribution curve of how it could upgrade. There's an X% chance it can go up one level or down one level. There's an (X/2)% chance that it'll go up 2, or down 2, and so on. If you have the 2nd level pants, and it tells it to downgrade it 3 times, it'll get destroyed, because it can only go down one level, then there's no where else for it to go.

What's this mean? For the first level of item, there's an ENORMOUS chance it'll be destroyed. Once you manage to get it up to 2 or 3, then it's a lot less likely to happen, however it can still downgrade to a point where destruction is dangerously likely.

I'll just say this:
I tried to get the Stirgeman cape with the 120 HP on it. I destroyed over 25 capes and never got it. The capes were infinitely more common than the pants. Good luck.

It doesnt seem to work like that, because I tried to upgrade my pants from MK V and it exploded, is it even possible to upgrade to power pants.... I've already exploded two pairs of pants