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Statistical Anomaly
#9
larmie Wrote:In old computer games you could adjust the random variables by timing it or pressing random buttons.
My personal favorite example of this? Pokemon TCG for Gameboy Color. That game had a fixed RNG (as in it didn't reset the seed every time the game was turned off/on), so EVERY COIN FLIP was manipulatable. If you do something that needs a coin flip, you can save before hand. If it doesn't come up the way you want, reset and do something else and let the enemy burn off the bad flip, because no matter what the next coin flip will be that bad flip. Poor programming at its finest.

Stereo Wrote:HHHHHHHHHHT is no more a statistical anomaly than HHHHHHHHHHH, it just looks tidier as 11 heads in a row. Any specific sequence of 11 results is very unlikely to occur (1 in 2048, or 0.05%), but in general if you flip a coin 11 times, you are going to hit one of the sequences.
I've been wanting to comment on this for a while, because (unless I overlooked it) no one has made this point yet. The reason that a 50/50 H/T ratio is the most normal is because, while each specific sequence in a 10 coin flip has 1/2^10 (1/1024) chance of occurring, that's each specific permutation. If we look at combinations instead, we see that HHHHHTTTTT is exactly the same as HTHTHTHTHT. So while the permutation HHHHHTTTTT has the same 0.1% chance of occurring as HHHHHHHHHH, the combination HHHHHTTTTT has significantly more permutations and thus chances of occurring. I'm terrible with probability, so I'm not sure of the exact numbers, but I know enough to say with certainty that the most likely combination will be one with equal numbers of heads and tails.
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Messages In This Thread
Statistical Anomaly - by CautionSin - 2010-07-25, 04:15 AM
Statistical Anomaly - by Stereo - 2010-07-25, 04:45 AM
Statistical Anomaly - by sicnarf - 2010-07-25, 05:10 AM
Statistical Anomaly - by CautionSin - 2010-07-25, 05:58 AM
Statistical Anomaly - by Stereo - 2010-07-25, 06:13 AM
Statistical Anomaly - by CautionSin - 2010-07-26, 01:09 AM
Statistical Anomaly - by larmie - 2010-08-12, 05:40 AM
Statistical Anomaly - by Random_Overlord - 2010-08-12, 06:02 AM
Statistical Anomaly - by Lord Xela - 2010-08-12, 10:33 AM
Statistical Anomaly - by Russt - 2010-08-12, 06:06 PM
Statistical Anomaly - by Stereo - 2010-08-12, 06:36 PM
Statistical Anomaly - by ImagineAll - 2010-08-13, 12:58 AM
Statistical Anomaly - by Lord Xela - 2010-08-13, 01:09 AM
Statistical Anomaly - by Hanabira.Kage - 2010-08-13, 11:42 PM

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