2010-08-12, 06:02 AM
CautionSin Wrote:If flipping a coin is completely random 50/50 chance, and you flip it 10 times and all 10 times it lands on heads. I realize the next time you flip it, it still has a 50/50 chance, but can it also be said that statistically it wants to even its results out, or land on tails. I mean if you were to flip it 10,000 times wouldn't it come out nearly even, so it cant just keep landing heads, so would that make landing on tails more likely? Or is that reasoning flawed b/c i used something that shouldn't happen to attempt to show something that should happen?
I seem to think something that happens a lot of times, giving it a statistically low probability of happening, should be more likely to not happen once more. Like if i ran the scenario 100 times, 10 heads in a row, what comes next, would tails or heads come next more often(at that 11 mark).
I guess in one hand if you get 11 in a row you have even more of a statistical anomaly, but if you get a tail next then you won't have the even more unlikely anomaly. So, i guess what im doing is comparing the chance of the anomaly continuing vs. the chance that it ends.
L> this actually ran out, and in order for it to be legitimate, it has to be a program to give a random 0 or 1, each one has a 50% chance. Now run the program until it naturally gets 10 in a row, what comes 11th. Would it be 11 0's or would a 1 come next more often and break the anomaly? And record this until you have 100 of the same scenarios, would there be a noticeable break in the anomaly?
The point about coin flipping to, is the psyics of the area you flip in.
The Dynamics of the coin
The shape, the density
The Force at which you flip, and the fatigue from previous attempts.
The direction in which you flip, the height, the wind current.
You also have to consider where your hand is or if you even catch the coin.
You have to take consideration of all the factors that could intervien in the results.
When you calculate the EXACT chance to get a coin on a cirtain side, it's 50%, but each factor places the coin at millions of instances if you were to flip elsewhere.