2009-12-04, 01:09 AM
Noah Wrote:I think it's better to view it this way:
bet debt-result win-total-result probability of winning 1 1 2 p 2 3 1 p 6 9 3 p 18 27 9 p 54 81 27 p 162 243 81 p 486 729 243 p
Problem being, it's a higher chance to lose money than earn. That means that you will on average lose money instead of earning it.
It's easier than the "If you flip a coin until you get heads, I will give youdollars, where n is the amount of tails you got in a row" though. You could try to find the expectation-value of that one!
Noah
Not completely sure what you mean there, but you're Noah, so you're probably right. Also, I'm assuming that I have an infinite money supply. Of course, with that, you can gamble whatever huge amount you want and just quit whenever you make a profit. Of course I can make a huge finite profit out of finite money, but both doubling my money and using it all up have a theoretical 50% success rate if I repeated it infinite times.
Since the amount of money I gamble will always increase exponentially with this method, with a finite wallet I'll be only a handful of failures in a row from emptying it.
Basically, you have an incredibly high chance of making a small portion of your money supply back using this method (which can be as enormous as you want when you have an infinite supply) but your chance of making a large proportion of your supply isn't helped at all. If you inch your way up, you're gambling enough times to put your money at risk, and if you're gaining in leaps and bounds, you're getting dangerously close to losing it all.
IT MAKES SENSE IN MY HEAD.


dollars, where n is the amount of tails you got in a row" though. You could try to find the expectation-value of that one! 