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Glove scrolling probability help
#17
Since I'm more into the cost side of things, I'll introduce more scenarios for price comparison.
1) 10 30 30 10 60, white scrolled last 2 slots: 14 atk glove
1.666 60%+WS
10 10%+WS
3.333 30%
11.111 30%
111.11 10%
Total: 111 gloves, 121 10%, 14.5 30%, 12 White Scrolls
This is only 433 million in scrolls, plus 12 White Scrolls - from previous 2.3 billion, this is cheaper if you can get White Scrolls for less than 160mil each (with previous prices on other scrolls)

2) 10 30 30 30 60, WS 1 slot: 14 atk glove
1.666 WS+60%
3.333 30%
11.11 30%
37.03 30%
370 10%
= 370 gloves, 370 10%, 51.4 30%, 1.6 WS
1.4 billion of scrolls, plus 1.6 white scrolls - off of 2.3 billion, this is cheaper for 450mil or lower WS. I'd say this is definitely worthwhile if you get a 12 atk 1 slot glove...
2a) 10 30 30 30 10, WS 1 slot: 15 atk glove
= 370 gloves, 380 10%, 51.4 30%, 10 WS
1.4 billion of scrolls, 10 white scrolls - no direct comparison in price, but this is the best you can do.

3) 10 30 30 60 60 (white scrolled 60s): 13 atk glove
1.666 60+WS
1.666 60+WS
3.333 30%
11.111 30%
111.11 10%
Since first 3 slots are the same, this is again 433mil base, but only 3.333 WS this time. From previous 1.1 billion, that gives 700m for the White Scrolls = cheaper for 210m or lower WS.

4) 10 30 30 30 60, WS last 2 slots: 14 atk glove
1.666 60%+WS
30% + White Scrolls is more complicated, since they can break too. You'll need 3.333 tries to get a success, but of the ones coming from the next round, any that hit that 35% breakage cannot be used twice.
Used once + break: 35%
Used twice + break: 35%*65% = 22.75%
Used 3x + break: 35%*65%*65% = 14.8%
etc. 4-9.61%,5-6.24%,6-4.06%,7-2.6%
= average of around 2.4 tries per glove.
3.333/2.4 = average number of gloves input to get expected output, or 1.394.

4.63 30%
15.4 30%
154 10%
Total: 154 10%, 23.3 30%, 5 WS
= 594mil + 5 WS, for 2.3bil previous glove -> 340mil or cheaper is better.


Cheaper white scrolls favour the lower base costs which use more White Scroll, higher prices favour the ones that use just a couple.
eg. @ 100m
1) 1.6bil 14 atk
2) 1.56 bil 14 atk
2a) 2.4bil 15 atk
3) 760mil 13 atk
4) 1.1bil 14 atk

@ 50m
1) 1bil 14 atk / 1.4bil 15 atk (10 30 30 10WS 10WS)
2) 1.48bil 14 atk
3) 580mil 13 atk
4) 850mil 14 atk

Comparison in prices to actual 14-16 atk WGs is looking somewhat decent with White Scrolls getting cheaper, and SCG/BWG more expensive..
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Messages In This Thread
Glove scrolling probability help - by MasPan - 2009-07-04, 05:13 AM
Glove scrolling probability help - by fearpils - 2009-07-04, 06:55 AM
Glove scrolling probability help - by Noah - 2009-07-04, 09:07 AM
Glove scrolling probability help - by Stereo - 2009-07-04, 10:06 AM
Glove scrolling probability help - by ShadyPriest - 2009-07-04, 11:28 AM
Glove scrolling probability help - by fearpils - 2009-07-04, 02:45 PM
Glove scrolling probability help - by Sinnuendo - 2009-07-04, 03:02 PM
Glove scrolling probability help - by Noah - 2009-07-04, 03:32 PM
Glove scrolling probability help - by Stereo - 2009-07-04, 06:12 PM
Glove scrolling probability help - by MasPan - 2009-07-04, 08:02 PM
Glove scrolling probability help - by Stereo - 2009-07-04, 08:24 PM
Glove scrolling probability help - by MasPan - 2009-07-04, 08:46 PM
Glove scrolling probability help - by perolicious - 2009-07-04, 09:31 PM
Glove scrolling probability help - by Eos - 2009-07-05, 05:04 AM
Glove scrolling probability help - by MasPan - 2009-07-05, 05:47 AM
Glove scrolling probability help - by Eos - 2009-07-05, 05:51 AM
Glove scrolling probability help - by Stereo - 2009-07-05, 09:14 AM
Glove scrolling probability help - by Noah - 2009-07-05, 03:38 PM
Glove scrolling probability help - by Eos - 2009-07-05, 04:22 PM
Glove scrolling probability help - by Noah - 2009-07-05, 05:19 PM

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