2009-07-04, 09:07 AM
MasPan Wrote:[color="#cc8899"]A) with appx 250m (100 10% glove attacks), what are the odds of landing 2 10%s on a single glove, assuming a glove is abandoned if first slot fails.
B) with a base of 10 6 attack gloves (3 slots), what are the odds of at least 4 becoming 9 attack 2 slot using 30% scrolls
C) with a base of 4 9 attack (2 slot) gloves, what are the odds of at least 2 becoming 12 attack (1 slot) using 30% scrolls
D) What are the odds of landing 10%, 10%, 30%, 30%, 60% on at least one glove, given the funding/prices above and abandoning a glove at the first failure? How much do the odds improve by aiming for 10,10,30,60,60 instead?[/COLOR]
A) The expectation-value is at 110 scrolls needed in order to hit 2 10% in a row. In order to calculate the chance for 2 in a row with 100 scrolls, you'll need some matrix-calculations I've not worked with yet. (I should really finish that theory...) The probability wouldn't be too far away from 90% though.
B) 10 gloves with 6 watk, at least 4 becoming 9 watk through using 30%s?
That's 1 - 0.7^10 - 0.7^9*0.3*10 - 0.7^8*0.3^2*(10 chance 2) - 0.7^7*0.3^2*(10 chance 3)
(I don't have a calc atm, so I'm sorry for not evaluating the expression.)
C) 34,83 percent.
D) You gotta be funny. This would require so advanced mathematics I'm not going to even look at it as of today. Maybe in a year or so.
