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Glove scrolling probability help
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Disclaimer: Yes, I know it'd be cheaper to just buy a 13 attack. If you find me that 13 attack warrior glove, let me know, because I'd buy it in an instant. Until then (assuming my perma Agent glove turns out badly, I haven't gotten it yet to chaos), I'll view this as the next best thing. Besides, getting a 15 att warrior glove would be amazing, and a huge screw you to SCG enthusiasts.
For all you math geeks out there
The plan - with 500m, have a decent chance of scrolling a 13,14, or 15 attack lv100 warrior glove. I will begin by landing consecutive 10%s on the first 2 slots (resulting in 6 attack 3 slot), finishing with 30s and 60s (60%s are the emergency option, provided that I don't have enough 12 attacks to risk a final 30 (which I won't do unless I have 4+).

The assumptions are that I won't spend more than 500k per glove, 2.5m per 10% glove attack, 9m 30% glove attack, and 6m 60% glove attack.
Failures (12 attacks or lower non boom) will be used to fund further scrolling, excepting the best glove currently scrolled, which will be kept for personal usage.

What I want to know is,

A) with appx 250m (100 10% glove attacks), what are the odds of landing 2 10%s on a single glove, assuming a glove is abandoned if first slot fails.

B) with a base of 10 6 attack gloves (3 slots), what are the odds of at least 4 becoming 9 attack 2 slot using 30% scrolls

C) with a base of 4 9 attack (2 slot) gloves, what are the odds of at least 2 becoming 12 attack (1 slot) using 30% scrolls

D) What are the odds of landing 10%, 10%, 30%, 30%, 60% on at least one glove, given the funding/prices above and abandoning a glove at the first failure? How much do the odds improve by aiming for 10,10,30,60,60 instead?[/COLOR]
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Messages In This Thread
Glove scrolling probability help - by MasPan - 2009-07-04, 05:13 AM
Glove scrolling probability help - by fearpils - 2009-07-04, 06:55 AM
Glove scrolling probability help - by Noah - 2009-07-04, 09:07 AM
Glove scrolling probability help - by Stereo - 2009-07-04, 10:06 AM
Glove scrolling probability help - by ShadyPriest - 2009-07-04, 11:28 AM
Glove scrolling probability help - by fearpils - 2009-07-04, 02:45 PM
Glove scrolling probability help - by Sinnuendo - 2009-07-04, 03:02 PM
Glove scrolling probability help - by Noah - 2009-07-04, 03:32 PM
Glove scrolling probability help - by Stereo - 2009-07-04, 06:12 PM
Glove scrolling probability help - by MasPan - 2009-07-04, 08:02 PM
Glove scrolling probability help - by Stereo - 2009-07-04, 08:24 PM
Glove scrolling probability help - by MasPan - 2009-07-04, 08:46 PM
Glove scrolling probability help - by perolicious - 2009-07-04, 09:31 PM
Glove scrolling probability help - by Eos - 2009-07-05, 05:04 AM
Glove scrolling probability help - by MasPan - 2009-07-05, 05:47 AM
Glove scrolling probability help - by Eos - 2009-07-05, 05:51 AM
Glove scrolling probability help - by Stereo - 2009-07-05, 09:14 AM
Glove scrolling probability help - by Noah - 2009-07-05, 03:38 PM
Glove scrolling probability help - by Eos - 2009-07-05, 04:22 PM
Glove scrolling probability help - by Noah - 2009-07-05, 05:19 PM

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