2009-06-12, 04:55 AM
(This post was last modified: 2009-06-12, 04:57 AM by IllegallySane.)
A friend told me of a formula to figuring out the probability of 6 slots
((n!)/(n-x)!x!) * (p^x) * (q^(n-x)).
This is what he explained:
n = number of trials
x = number of successes
! = factorial
p = probability of success
q = probability of failure
Here's what I got:
All 6 failing: 0.4096%
5 failing: 3.6864%
4 failing: 13.824%
3 failing: 27.648%
2 failing: 31.104%
1 failing: 18.6624%
0 failing: 4.6656%
So the odds of getting less than 31 DEX: 17.92%
Odds of getting a 31 DEX: 27.648%
Odds of 33 DEX or better: 54.4432%
Odds of getting a 31 DEX or better: 82.08%
Hmmmmmmmm, when laid out this way, 60%ing seems very favorable. But can a statistics buff quickly make sure I didn't borked up one of the numbers?
((n!)/(n-x)!x!) * (p^x) * (q^(n-x)).
This is what he explained:
n = number of trials
x = number of successes
! = factorial
p = probability of success
q = probability of failure
Here's what I got:
All 6 failing: 0.4096%
5 failing: 3.6864%
4 failing: 13.824%
3 failing: 27.648%
2 failing: 31.104%
1 failing: 18.6624%
0 failing: 4.6656%
So the odds of getting less than 31 DEX: 17.92%
Odds of getting a 31 DEX: 27.648%
Odds of 33 DEX or better: 54.4432%
Odds of getting a 31 DEX or better: 82.08%
Hmmmmmmmm, when laid out this way, 60%ing seems very favorable. But can a statistics buff quickly make sure I didn't borked up one of the numbers?