Need some help with Probability

I'd say base it upon the Binomial Distribution with 0.3 as success and 0.35 (fail w/o break) as failure.

Oh pomegranate, that works?

When I was trying to calculate this crap a year or two ago, I thought it was some special case, couldn't figure it out, and resorted to Excel-bashing. (Which does get the probabilities quite nicely, but required a bit more setup.)