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Tempus · 2009-05-20, 01:47 PM

Dusk Wrote:I'm not quite sure how to calculate this, so I'd appreciate a little help.

I'd say base it upon the Binomial Distribution with 0.3 as success and 0.35 (fail w/o break) as failure.

Dusk Wrote:What is the chance of passing at least 4 30%s, in the first 5 slots? That is, 5 slots are used, one of them can fail but not break, but 4 must pass?

$[Image: eq.latex?\begin%7Balign%7DP%5BX\ge%204%5D&=P%5BX=4%5D+...end%7Balign%7D]$

So 1.6605%, 302 scrolls on average.

Dusk Wrote:6 slots?

$[Image: eq.latex?\begin%7Balign%7DP%5BX\ge%204%5D&=P%5BX=4%5D+...end%7Balign%7D]$

So 2.071575%, 290 scrolls on average.

Dusk Wrote:7 slots?

$[Image: eq.latex?\begin%7Balign%7DP%5BX\ge%204%5D&=P%5BX=4%5D+...end%7Balign%7D]$

So 2.04109875%, 294 scrolls on average.

Dusk Wrote:For all of the above questions, how many scrolls would it take to achieve this result, on average?

I added the scroll averages, but I'm not 100% sure on whether they're correct or not.

Dusk Wrote:How many equips would it take on average?

Not 100% sure how to go about this either, it'd take more time I think as you'd have to factor in the chance of breaking and the number of slots an item has.

All in all, my answers (my calculations probably as I only had Windows' Calculator handy) may be wrong, lol, but just trying to give a general idea. I hate probability. Smile

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