Poll: What is the better action to take?
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Switch doors
56.41%
22 56.41%
Stay with your selected door
10.26%
4 10.26%
It doesn't matter, they're both as likely to get me a chinchilla.
33.33%
13 33.33%
Total 39 vote(s) 100%
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Monty Hall problem - SP edition
#48
 chart listing out all the cases
If you count, you'll see that if you stay, there are two cases where you'll get a pineapple, and 1 case where you'll get a chinchilla, but if you switch, there are two cases where you'll get a chinchilla, and 1 case where you'll get a pineapple.

TehMatt Wrote:Choose A + Stay = Win
Choose A + Switch = Lose
Choose B + Stay = Lose
Choose B + Switch = Win
Choose C + Stay = Lose
Choose C + Switch = Win


C is struken since it was eliminated by the host, revealing it contained a Pineapple. This makes the probabilty 50% chance of winning if you stay and 50% chance of winning if you switch.

You can't strike C because if you had chosen it, the host would have revealed what is behind door B.

edit: Ok, I re-read your post and have a clarification to make.

Yes, in the case you stated, the probability is 50%, but under the assumption that initially door B is always picked and you have the option of staying or switching, in which case you're only really picking between door A and door B (door C is irrelevant in this case). What you should do is repeat your steps assuming you pick door A first, and again assuming you pick door C first. Individually you'll still get 50% for each case, but when you combine them you'll find that you have a 2/3 chance of picking the chinchilla if you switch.
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Messages In This Thread
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by sicnarf - 2009-03-12, 06:05 PM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by Holypie - 2009-03-12, 06:06 PM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by Pistolero831 - 2009-03-12, 06:14 PM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by Derimed - 2009-03-12, 06:51 PM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by Russt - 2009-03-14, 11:37 PM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by Nikkey - 2009-03-15, 03:24 AM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by Russt - 2009-03-15, 10:14 PM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by Dusk - 2009-03-15, 11:06 PM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by JoeTang - 2009-03-15, 11:25 PM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by mrcowcow - 2009-03-15, 11:40 PM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by KajitiSouls - 2009-03-16, 12:06 AM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by Hazzy - 2009-03-16, 12:14 AM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by Cancambo - 2009-03-16, 01:52 AM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by Heidi - 2009-03-16, 03:34 AM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by Alloy - 2009-03-16, 09:54 AM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by Russt - 2009-03-16, 08:30 PM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by Cancambo - 2009-03-16, 09:02 PM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by Kaasoljoyyx - 2009-03-16, 09:11 PM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by Cancambo - 2009-03-16, 09:16 PM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by Holypie - 2009-03-16, 09:37 PM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by mrcowcow - 2009-03-16, 11:45 PM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by mrcowcow - 2009-03-16, 11:52 PM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by mrcowcow - 2009-03-16, 11:52 PM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by Kaasoljoyyx - 2009-03-17, 01:26 AM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by sicnarf - 2009-03-17, 01:48 AM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by GummyBear - 2009-03-17, 08:14 AM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by Cancambo - 2009-03-17, 04:01 PM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by sicnarf - 2009-03-17, 04:25 PM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by Cancambo - 2009-03-17, 05:32 PM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by y0y0y0y0shi0 - 2009-03-17, 06:33 PM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by Alloy - 2009-03-17, 06:36 PM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by sicnarf - 2009-03-17, 06:50 PM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by Alloy - 2009-03-17, 07:25 PM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by Cancambo - 2009-03-17, 10:04 PM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by Russt - 2009-03-17, 10:35 PM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by Cancambo - 2009-03-17, 11:06 PM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by Kaasoljoyyx - 2009-03-18, 01:06 AM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by Cancambo - 2009-03-18, 02:48 AM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by Tir - 2009-03-18, 04:31 AM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by Kaasoljoyyx - 2009-03-18, 12:07 PM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by Cancambo - 2009-03-18, 06:10 PM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by Nikkey - 2009-03-18, 06:54 PM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by Cancambo - 2009-03-18, 07:14 PM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by Kaasoljoyyx - 2009-03-18, 09:44 PM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by Cancambo - 2009-03-18, 09:56 PM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by AngelSL - 2009-03-20, 07:29 AM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by Nikkey - 2009-03-20, 11:15 AM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by Tir - 2009-03-20, 02:09 PM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by AngelSL - 2009-03-20, 10:45 PM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by Kaasoljoyyx - 2009-03-21, 01:30 AM
Monty Hall problem - SP edition - by NoJobNoRules - 2009-03-26, 01:11 AM

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