2009-03-18, 12:07 PM
Maybe this example will make more sense.
Let us say you are playing roullette and there are 10 evenly divided sections. The host tells you that one of the sections will get you $1 while the other slots will take your money away.
Let's say the marble lands on section #1. This has a 10% chance of being the section that will get you $1
Now, the host tells you that slots #3~#10 are all wrong and will give you no money. He gives you the option to stay on slot #1 or move your marble to slot #2.
If you stay on slot #1, your chance is still 10% as the board has not changed. It is still 1 of 10 sections that you chose from the beginning
Now, if you switch to slot #2, the only remaining sections are slot #1 and slot #2 so the chance of #2 being correct is much higher. This does not apply to slot #1 as you chose it from an initial 10 slots while switching has a variable of 2 slots maximum, but you cannot apply the 2 slot maximum rule to slot #1 as you didn't choose it from 2 slots but rather 10 slots.
The chart I showed earlier should have been enough as it showed all 6 possibilities. You choose one door and another one is eliminated, and you switch or stay. Maybe you're unaware that the host ALWAYS eliminates a bad door/situation and never the good one.
Let us say you are playing roullette and there are 10 evenly divided sections. The host tells you that one of the sections will get you $1 while the other slots will take your money away.
Let's say the marble lands on section #1. This has a 10% chance of being the section that will get you $1
Now, the host tells you that slots #3~#10 are all wrong and will give you no money. He gives you the option to stay on slot #1 or move your marble to slot #2.
If you stay on slot #1, your chance is still 10% as the board has not changed. It is still 1 of 10 sections that you chose from the beginning
Now, if you switch to slot #2, the only remaining sections are slot #1 and slot #2 so the chance of #2 being correct is much higher. This does not apply to slot #1 as you chose it from an initial 10 slots while switching has a variable of 2 slots maximum, but you cannot apply the 2 slot maximum rule to slot #1 as you didn't choose it from 2 slots but rather 10 slots.
The chart I showed earlier should have been enough as it showed all 6 possibilities. You choose one door and another one is eliminated, and you switch or stay. Maybe you're unaware that the host ALWAYS eliminates a bad door/situation and never the good one.