200 Watch - ETAs for GMS

Sorry, let me rephrase. I know how it's done. I don't believe that the average exp gain over the most recent two weeks is a reliable indicator of when the person will hit level 200, because most people don't level at a consistent pace.

It's as directionally accurate as possible, and better than anything else available. It serves as a nice reality check. It's not telling you when you're going to hit too. It's telling you when a person will hit 200 under the conditions they are currently leveling.

You're focusing entirely too much on it being a to the minute identifier, when that's not what it's meant to be, not what it's presented as and not how things work. It's a windsock. It tells you what direction the wind is blowing today. Just go with it and stop over-analyzing.