2009-03-17, 06:33 PM
(This post was last modified: 2009-03-17, 06:35 PM by y0y0y0y0shi0.)
It doesn't matter. Either way you have the same probability, a 1/2 chance that one of the two doors holds the chinchilla. You eliminate the first door because it is revealed, and is not part of the problem, giving a 1/2 chance for a chinchilla or a pineapple.
BUT, chances are if the host picked the wrong one, he purposely did it, and knowing you would think that it the one with the chinchilla was the one that you originally picked, he would make the other door the pineapple door, leaving you with a pineapple if you stuck with your first choice. Though, that probably wouldn't happen anyway because people aren't THAT cruel (Except Nexon).
In which case, if it was Nexon that was hosting it, then you would have a 0% chance to get the chinchilla because they screwed up and put 3 pineapples. BUT, the chinchilla would want to destroy the pineapple so he would go and eat it, making him the 3rd position, in which case it would be a 1/3 chance because the chinchilla might have gone and eaten the pineapple from the door you already chose, giving you a 0% chance of getting the chinchilla, but a 1/3 chance right after you eliminated one.
tl;dr I like making problems more complicated than they really are and making heinous things that have nothing to do with the problem.
BUT, chances are if the host picked the wrong one, he purposely did it, and knowing you would think that it the one with the chinchilla was the one that you originally picked, he would make the other door the pineapple door, leaving you with a pineapple if you stuck with your first choice. Though, that probably wouldn't happen anyway because people aren't THAT cruel (Except Nexon).
In which case, if it was Nexon that was hosting it, then you would have a 0% chance to get the chinchilla because they screwed up and put 3 pineapples. BUT, the chinchilla would want to destroy the pineapple so he would go and eat it, making him the 3rd position, in which case it would be a 1/3 chance because the chinchilla might have gone and eaten the pineapple from the door you already chose, giving you a 0% chance of getting the chinchilla, but a 1/3 chance right after you eliminated one.
tl;dr I like making problems more complicated than they really are and making heinous things that have nothing to do with the problem.