Poll: What are the odds?
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100%
1.15%
1 1.15%
50%
79.31%
69 79.31%
33%
16.09%
14 16.09%
25%
3.45%
3 3.45%
Total 87 vote(s) 100%
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A woman has two kids. One is a boy. What are the odds the other is a boy?
Stereo Wrote:How about like this:

Your friend has two kids. One of them is named Nathan after his father. What are the odds the other one is a boy?
Scenario 1: The younger child is named Nathan (50%)
- 25% chance that the older child is a boy
- 25% chance that the older child is a girl
Scenario 2: The older child is named Nathan (50%)
- 25% chance that the younger child is a boy
- 25% chance that the younger child is a girl

50%.

With the original phrasing, it can be understood three ways.
1. The question is referring to a particular kid of the two, and states that it is a boy. Therefore, the one not mentioned can either be a boy or a girl => 50%.
(To elaborate, there are four possibilities. The 'one' mentioned in the problem is blue:
B/B
B/B
B/G
G/B
The odds that the other is a boy is 2/4 = 50%.)
2. The question states that exactly one kid of the two is a boy, meaning that the 'other' child must be a girl => 0%.
3. The question states that at least one kid is a boy. Likewise, it can also be understood that the woman has at least two kids in the first place => indeterminate.

This is fun.
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A woman has two kids. One is a boy. What are the odds the other is a boy? - by Russt - 2009-03-14, 10:36 PM

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