2009-03-12, 11:30 PM
(This post was last modified: 2009-03-12, 11:44 PM by IllegallySane.)
Wait, pineapple. I change my vote to 50%. Picked 33% accidentally.
I'm taking the simple approach and reading the question for what it is. It's not rocket science. The BB/BG/GB choices have nothing to do with the odds of the 2nd kid being a boy. It only matters if we didn't know what the first choice is, and we're asked the odds of a set event (2 are boys, 1st is a boy 2nd is a girl, 1st is a girl 2nd is a boy). We are only concentrating on the 2nd kid as an independent event. The odds of the 2nd kid being a boy is NOT dependent on the first kid. It's not what are the odds of the kids being boy/boy, or the odds of at least one boy. It's simply what are the odds that the other kid is a boy.
50% is 50%, or if we want to be really nit-picky, they say the odds of a boy is closer to 51% than 50%. Can't remember the reasoning behind it though.
*Besides, 33% is the correct answer IF the question was worded this way: A woman has two kids. One is a boy. What are the odds BOTH are boys? Opeth is only asking about the other kid being a boy.
I'm taking the simple approach and reading the question for what it is. It's not rocket science. The BB/BG/GB choices have nothing to do with the odds of the 2nd kid being a boy. It only matters if we didn't know what the first choice is, and we're asked the odds of a set event (2 are boys, 1st is a boy 2nd is a girl, 1st is a girl 2nd is a boy). We are only concentrating on the 2nd kid as an independent event. The odds of the 2nd kid being a boy is NOT dependent on the first kid. It's not what are the odds of the kids being boy/boy, or the odds of at least one boy. It's simply what are the odds that the other kid is a boy.
50% is 50%, or if we want to be really nit-picky, they say the odds of a boy is closer to 51% than 50%. Can't remember the reasoning behind it though.
*Besides, 33% is the correct answer IF the question was worded this way: A woman has two kids. One is a boy. What are the odds BOTH are boys? Opeth is only asking about the other kid being a boy.