2009-02-23, 05:42 PM
FelixTM Wrote:The point I'm trying to make is nothing complex. It's simply that probability tells us it's continually harder to hit consecutive scrolls. Because of the way scrolls work, their success never changes. That's obvious and has been pointed out enough times.
It doesn't though, and every statistical test I've done on my history of scrolling has shown it to be completely unrelated (I used ~180 60% scrolls in the same setting so I have good sampling up to sequences of about 5-6).
Doesn't matter how many worked, it's still the same chance of hitting another one. Be that 65% (as '60%' scrolls seem to actually be), 10%, or whatever. Same thing, it doesn't matter if they failed - they're still going to have the same chance of failure.
If this person has made videos of their method I'd be interested, otherwise I don't really care about anecdotes. I've had 4 30% work in a row, it just comes down to using enough scrolls, eventually good results do happen.